{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e8331f6-9d6c-4b02-843f-6fcb294c3f82", "symbol": "CK", "name": "CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.928, "architecture_energy": 23.028, "architecture_maturity": 67.262, "architecture_confidence": 85.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.63, "rotation_up": 22.58, "upward_expansion": 55.53, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 31.64, "downward_expansion": 19.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.526666, 18.887272, 18.633809, 17.97681 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.6, "trend_reference": 16.858907, "distance_from_trend": 0.103274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.296512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.940383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.488266, "excess_performance": 0.29594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039404, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.488266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39006200, "relative_activity": 0.976117, "balance": 0.630804, "dry_up": 1.282383, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063689, "annualized_volatility": 0.431769, "from_high_reference": -0.101449, "from_low_reference": 0.70279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.858907, "fair_value_reference": 17.296512, "structural_low": 13.186624, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008734, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.026111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.062802, "worst_return": -0.201299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21875, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088766, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23913, "worst_return": -0.128527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.174847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", 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17.590515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 64003100, "typical_volume": 40268570.0, "trend": 16.403047, "fair_value": 17.321169, "relative_strength": 0.741387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.267764, "energy": 31.754245, "activity_lines": [ 18.906666, 19.085454, 18.519524, 17.726858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 25305900, "typical_volume": 39613485.0, "trend": 16.622696, "fair_value": 17.30999, "relative_strength": 1.746433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.285159, "energy": 21.113698, "activity_lines": [ 18.619999, 18.96, 18.569047, 17.849242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.6, "volume": 39006200, "typical_volume": 39960560.0, "trend": 16.858907, "fair_value": 17.296512, "relative_strength": 3.940383, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.928178, "energy": 23.027929, "activity_lines": [ 18.526666, 18.887272, 18.633809, 17.97681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }