{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e83ff7c-8562-45a4-b475-b8eb4a9b0834", "symbol": "EPRX", "name": "Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.365, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.767, "architecture_energy": 26.127, "architecture_maturity": 28.233, "architecture_confidence": 77.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.99, "rotation_up": 21.28, "upward_expansion": 2.4, "deceleration": 52.9, "rotation_down": 37.26, "downward_expansion": 68.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.449333, 6.460182, 6.623333, 6.843247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.77, "trend_reference": 7.246667, "distance_from_trend": -0.065777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.727823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.442893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189222, "excess_performance": -0.376675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.431949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.067125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1133305, "relative_activity": 0.818452, "balance": 2.067125, "dry_up": 1.322887, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131986, "annualized_volatility": 0.45338, "from_high_reference": -0.273605, "from_low_reference": 0.343254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.246667, "fair_value_reference": 4.727823, "structural_low": 5.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014302, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004628, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.352938, "worst_return": -0.078231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053678, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.070118, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356712, "worst_return": -0.147458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.096178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.234786, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.064864, "worst_return": -0.257219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -14.098493, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.41519, "energy": 22.503177, "activity_lines": [ 6.597333, 6.583818, 6.81681, 7.090258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.59, "volume": 796210, "typical_volume": 1259659.75, "trend": 7.388667, "fair_value": 4.713886, "relative_strength": -11.581035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.345014, "energy": 19.359197, "activity_lines": [ 6.628, 6.563818, 6.775238, 7.038796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.81, "volume": 2213123, "typical_volume": 1301568.85, "trend": 7.330667, "fair_value": 4.714719, "relative_strength": -20.605489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.347082, "energy": 33.176256, "activity_lines": [ 6.362, 6.417636, 6.666952, 6.936946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.4, "volume": 3184531, "typical_volume": 1421728.7, "trend": 7.291667, "fair_value": 4.72036, "relative_strength": -12.985163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.712724, "energy": 28.993495, "activity_lines": [ 6.337333, 6.398909, 6.625238, 6.876903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.77, "volume": 1133305, "typical_volume": 1384692.9, "trend": 7.246667, "fair_value": 4.727823, "relative_strength": -12.442893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.766945, "energy": 26.126757, "activity_lines": [ 6.449333, 6.460182, 6.623333, 6.843247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }