{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e846915-68dd-490b-b083-8e9c08d8d3ea", "symbol": "SMCP", "name": "SMCP S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.804, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.472, "architecture_energy": 76.367, "architecture_maturity": 20.158, "architecture_confidence": 86.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.59, "rotation_up": 72.46, "upward_expansion": 53.67, "deceleration": 24.16, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 31.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.130667, 5.696782, 5.451062, 5.476609 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.74, "trend_reference": 5.607433, "distance_from_trend": 0.201976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.106801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.64118, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.776369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069841, "excess_performance": 0.01653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.201976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.64118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.437514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067764, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.770432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 642958, "relative_activity": 1.845448, "balance": 3.770432, "dry_up": 1.707021, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057669, "annualized_volatility": 0.521404, "from_high_reference": -0.057343, "from_low_reference": 0.392562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.607433, "fair_value_reference": 4.106801, "structural_low": 4.84, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013481, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.130977, "worst_return": -0.07837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048516, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517672, "worst_return": 0.037219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.093555, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158581, "worst_return": -0.094101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5.689767, "fair_value": 4.156801, "relative_strength": -17.475473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.354896, "energy": 39.236156, "activity_lines": [ 5.040867, 5.051236, 5.2018, 5.411222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.17, "volume": 309159, "typical_volume": 377996.95, "trend": 5.650767, "fair_value": 4.134365, "relative_strength": -14.048915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.930676, "energy": 31.633885, "activity_lines": [ 5.089, 5.069818, 5.180167, 5.377688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.33, "volume": 344961, "typical_volume": 340999.8, "trend": 5.616767, "fair_value": 4.111865, "relative_strength": -11.396306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.080383, "energy": 21.970445, "activity_lines": [ 5.175, 5.117491, 5.178629, 5.356994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.21, "volume": 304066, "typical_volume": 319432.05, "trend": 5.580433, "fair_value": 4.100519, "relative_strength": -13.793228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.313006, "energy": 18.462311, "activity_lines": [ 5.202333, 5.140436, 5.172948, 5.330751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 1086935, "typical_volume": 343709.9, "trend": 5.598767, "fair_value": 4.103404, "relative_strength": 8.710142, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.866964, "energy": 44.433925, "activity_lines": [ 5.716, 5.429927, 5.3126, 5.402981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.74, "volume": 642958, "typical_volume": 348402.2, "trend": 5.607433, "fair_value": 4.106801, "relative_strength": 6.776369, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.472412, "energy": 76.367098, "activity_lines": [ 6.130667, 5.696782, 5.451062, 5.476609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }