{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e85bc66-870b-4b94-b5da-4d95b4a57e04", "symbol": "BZQ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.655, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.055, "architecture_energy": 18.692, "architecture_maturity": 17.858, "architecture_confidence": 72.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.11, "rotation_up": 22.62, "upward_expansion": 48.47, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 37.18, "downward_expansion": 25.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.342773, 21.887894, 21.580316, 21.304786 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.9151, "trend_reference": 21.284834, "distance_from_trend": 0.029611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.318113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.469601, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.406842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036241, "excess_performance": -0.089384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.469601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25730, "relative_activity": 0.219668, "balance": 0.905225, "dry_up": 0.243372, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088466, "annualized_volatility": 0.522365, "from_high_reference": -0.502666, "from_low_reference": 0.359251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.284834, "fair_value_reference": 41.318113, "structural_low": 16.122922, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.023857, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.038804, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.199877, "worst_return": -0.240111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.068173, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.089637, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.454813, "worst_return": -0.383266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.140403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.237645, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.244558, "worst_return": -0.42531, 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"trend": 21.771856, "fair_value": 41.65734, "relative_strength": -28.772239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.731695, "energy": 10.974994, "activity_lines": [ 21.87018, 22.384615, 21.570704, 21.37458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.2502, "volume": 15727, "typical_volume": 125019.8, "trend": 21.47525, "fair_value": 41.48743, "relative_strength": -31.892819, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.318834, "energy": 21.365111, "activity_lines": [ 21.245333, 21.97583, 21.489336, 21.276409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.9151, "volume": 25730, "typical_volume": 117131.5, "trend": 21.284834, "fair_value": 41.318113, "relative_strength": -27.406842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.055027, "energy": 18.691548, "activity_lines": [ 21.342773, 21.887894, 21.580316, 21.304786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }