{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e864dcf-c158-4fc6-99c0-c03983a85017", "symbol": "300078", "name": "Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.197, "architecture_energy": 60.797, "architecture_maturity": 86.442, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 27.52, "upward_expansion": 11.3, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 54.15, "downward_expansion": 84.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.924364, 3.180333, 3.456602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.864333, "distance_from_trend": -0.213318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.648333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.043896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366667, "excess_performance": -0.374066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166743, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134448364, "relative_activity": 1.289874, "balance": 0.393853, "dry_up": 1.30537, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089575, "annualized_volatility": 0.341661, "from_high_reference": -0.535878, "from_low_reference": 0.169231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.864333, "fair_value_reference": 3.648333, "structural_low": 2.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.010323, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.685446, "worst_return": -0.471464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045577, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.013054, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.447489, "worst_return": -0.352357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.108749, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.292237, "worst_return": -0.456576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 2.792, 2.944545, 3.278952, 3.576645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.96, "volume": 141354478, "typical_volume": 103352718.65, "trend": 3.910667, "fair_value": 3.656603, "relative_strength": -22.940222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.048856, "energy": 65.562641, "activity_lines": [ 2.83, 2.920545, 3.222524, 3.512774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 134448364, "typical_volume": 104233705.05, "trend": 3.864333, "fair_value": 3.648333, "relative_strength": -24.043896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.197375, "energy": 60.796904, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.924364, 3.180333, 3.456602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }