{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e86d784-fbe2-4a41-9361-591a1d94de46", "symbol": "C1BR34", "name": "CBRE Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.723, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 20.024, "architecture_energy": 26.666, "architecture_maturity": 10.158, "architecture_confidence": 51.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.39, "rotation_up": 50.21, "upward_expansion": 39.61, "deceleration": 33.39, "rotation_down": 17.29, "downward_expansion": 45.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 729.506014, 717.188911, 705.021236, 710.851374 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 755.830017, "trend_reference": 735.310331, "distance_from_trend": 0.027906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 654.271088, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155225, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.706684, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148763, "excess_performance": -0.091715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008581, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148763, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12, "relative_activity": 0.283353, "balance": 4.0, "dry_up": 0.979929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037028, "annualized_volatility": 0.352435, "from_high_reference": -0.174317, "from_low_reference": 0.190246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 735.310331, "fair_value_reference": 654.271088, "structural_low": 635.02002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.071993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071993, "worst_return": 0.071993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.100397, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100397, "worst_return": 0.100397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.199313, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199313, "worst_return": 0.199313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056497, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 706.940002, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 38.2, "trend": 744.220662, "fair_value": 649.853716, "relative_strength": -16.740126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.201662, "energy": 23.497336, "activity_lines": [ 705.786666, 695.971083, 695.986279, 710.166812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 738.900024, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 42.65, "trend": 739.898663, "fair_value": 652.008139, "relative_strength": -14.138172, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.982159, "energy": 17.906737, "activity_lines": [ 716.447343, 705.761816, 699.757281, 709.823545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 755.830017, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 42.35, "trend": 735.310331, "fair_value": 654.271088, "relative_strength": -8.706684, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 20.023827, "energy": 26.666175, "activity_lines": [ 729.506014, 717.188911, 705.021236, 710.851374 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }