{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e8a75ce-1356-4397-b6f7-0745044b5ad4", "symbol": "4543", "name": "Man Zai Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.511, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.444, "architecture_energy": 49.766, "architecture_maturity": 12.665, "architecture_confidence": 71.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.63, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 25.14, "deceleration": 50.55, "rotation_down": 64.34, "downward_expansion": 52.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.426667, 32.706363, 35.019762, 35.017097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.65, "trend_reference": 34.526667, "distance_from_trend": -0.083317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.397643, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.598751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063866, "excess_performance": -0.377506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.411193, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 405451, "relative_activity": 0.146784, "balance": 2.411193, "dry_up": 0.192769, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115445, "annualized_volatility": 0.437555, "from_high_reference": -0.339937, "from_low_reference": 0.478972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.526667, "fair_value_reference": 37.397643, "structural_low": 26.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049275, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011384, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127962, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.156398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063664, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156398, "worst_return": 0.156398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.293839, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293839, "worst_return": 0.293839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.413216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056061, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 745274, "typical_volume": 3063684.25, "trend": 34.225, "fair_value": 37.74941, "relative_strength": -21.206866, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.942436, "energy": 20.230608, "activity_lines": [ 34.65, 36.318181, 36.839286, 35.806774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.15, "volume": 603873, "typical_volume": 3039338.0, "trend": 34.341667, "fair_value": 37.622371, "relative_strength": -24.247444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.247899, "energy": 39.613464, "activity_lines": [ 33.23, 35.187272, 36.371666, 35.608387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.299999, "volume": 534214, "typical_volume": 2975814.9, "trend": 34.335, "fair_value": 37.521234, "relative_strength": -24.740414, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.44317, "energy": 52.983696, "activity_lines": [ 31.98, 34.013636, 35.813809, 35.347634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.0, "volume": 586357, "typical_volume": 2808489.1, "trend": 34.438333, "fair_value": 37.453494, "relative_strength": -21.787983, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.522041, "energy": 53.281844, "activity_lines": [ 31.6, 33.305454, 35.432857, 35.196989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.65, "volume": 405451, "typical_volume": 2762231.25, "trend": 34.526667, "fair_value": 37.397643, "relative_strength": -24.598751, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.443604, "energy": 49.765677, "activity_lines": [ 31.426667, 32.706363, 35.019762, 35.017097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }