{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e8f9615-566e-4862-a396-ea414fd44431", "symbol": "JDN", "name": "JD.com, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.332, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.888, "architecture_energy": 76.54, "architecture_maturity": 15.028, "architecture_confidence": 68.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.03, "rotation_up": 78.73, "upward_expansion": 88.38, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 10.7, "downward_expansion": 17.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 547.567334, 520.600181, 515.035227, 511.37933 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 563.01001, "trend_reference": 505.918372, "distance_from_trend": 0.112848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 573.501268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018293, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.255057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16843, "excess_performance": 0.223097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018293, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022551, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16843, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.036133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9484, "relative_activity": 0.924389, "balance": 2.036133, "dry_up": 0.908429, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048317, "annualized_volatility": 0.335593, "from_high_reference": -0.170415, "from_low_reference": 0.285411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 505.918372, "fair_value_reference": 573.501268, "structural_low": 438.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.059816, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.059344, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.157199, "worst_return": -0.339869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.225649, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.224417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050586, "worst_return": -0.377564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.238978, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.338245, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.746083, "worst_return": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.031404, "energy": 63.356035, "activity_lines": [ 475.483331, 486.901635, 500.561519, 500.677449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 521.0, "volume": 5447, "typical_volume": 12690.55, "trend": 503.302999, "fair_value": 575.418154, "relative_strength": -6.276522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.220398, "energy": 23.406132, "activity_lines": [ 490.500665, 490.889817, 502.291105, 501.825684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 526.48999, "volume": 2611, "typical_volume": 12182.8, "trend": 503.365409, "fair_value": 574.469023, "relative_strength": -4.322322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.665993, "energy": 18.78324, "activity_lines": [ 505.474662, 495.839815, 504.234512, 503.321619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 570.0, "volume": 19739, "typical_volume": 10246.75, "trend": 504.750073, "fair_value": 573.814619, "relative_strength": 3.139105, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.09259, "energy": 53.064865, "activity_lines": [ 531.852663, 509.219088, 510.114869, 507.620625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 563.01001, "volume": 9484, "typical_volume": 10259.75, "trend": 505.918372, "fair_value": 573.501268, "relative_strength": 2.255057, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.888094, "energy": 76.539628, "activity_lines": [ 547.567334, 520.600181, 515.035227, 511.37933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }