{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e95ac7e-626e-4758-a576-c4a2bfa8964c", "symbol": "FSV", "name": "FirstService Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.574, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.936, "architecture_energy": 5.569, "architecture_maturity": 16.059, "architecture_confidence": 64.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.39, "rotation_up": 38.84, "upward_expansion": 26.02, "deceleration": 32.51, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 31.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 199.638667, 200.314701, 196.556872, 196.623714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 200.779999, "trend_reference": 199.519002, "distance_from_trend": 0.00632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 224.860444, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.491137, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083981, "excess_performance": -0.204403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107091, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112461, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.765176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492700, "relative_activity": 0.946317, "balance": 1.765176, "dry_up": 1.239652, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060439, "annualized_volatility": 0.300173, "from_high_reference": -0.304677, "from_low_reference": 0.186393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 199.519002, "fair_value_reference": 224.860444, "structural_low": 169.235606, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009034, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 2.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.148966, "worst_return": -0.104402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064435, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.015071, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.158101, "worst_return": -0.207987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.149455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11584, "worst_return": -0.249442, "sufficient": false 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.117115, "energy": 25.258717, "activity_lines": [ 201.77825, 197.030627, 194.276869, 196.816256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 208.229996, "volume": 345300, "typical_volume": 511740.0, "trend": 201.181649, "fair_value": 224.95533, "relative_strength": -15.893648, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.298636, "energy": 38.638459, "activity_lines": [ 204.400492, 199.883214, 195.587531, 197.260959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.800003, "volume": 885000, "typical_volume": 519615.0, "trend": 200.530247, "fair_value": 224.917069, "relative_strength": -20.993754, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.103988, "energy": 18.591805, "activity_lines": [ 201.652054, 199.668606, 195.553567, 196.784723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.470001, "volume": 858700, "typical_volume": 529910.0, "trend": 200.215406, "fair_value": 224.885769, "relative_strength": -18.188202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.86419, "energy": 9.527258, "activity_lines": [ 200.031334, 199.836841, 195.907587, 196.587288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 200.779999, "volume": 492700, "typical_volume": 520650.0, "trend": 199.519002, "fair_value": 224.860444, "relative_strength": -18.491137, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.93611, "energy": 5.568793, "activity_lines": [ 199.638667, 200.314701, 196.556872, 196.623714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }