{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e9c0ced-0aa7-49df-a16b-7f02b265682b", "symbol": "603630", "name": "Lafang China Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.501, "architecture_energy": 20.491, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.611, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.1, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 23.04, "downward_expansion": 55.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.363333, 13.953818, 14.246333, 14.985183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.92, "trend_reference": 16.407, "distance_from_trend": -0.090632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.827576, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.228568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223321, "excess_performance": -0.180117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42920528, "relative_activity": 1.868463, "balance": 1.243152, "dry_up": 2.608869, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09868, "annualized_volatility": 0.401977, "from_high_reference": -0.521642, "from_low_reference": 0.206144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.407, "fair_value_reference": 15.827576, "structural_low": 12.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.000786, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.011009, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.195329, "worst_return": -0.183784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.077775, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066167, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.310088, "worst_return": -0.205065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096696, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.142309, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.223281, "worst_return": -0.359484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.131168, "energy": 45.459513, "activity_lines": [ 13.691333, 13.614364, 14.43081, 15.461484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.12, "volume": 52078036, "typical_volume": 17771774.2, "trend": 16.729, "fair_value": 15.835738, "relative_strength": -30.775747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.077953, "energy": 39.672978, "activity_lines": [ 13.587333, 13.487455, 14.23881, 15.212538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.84, "volume": 88834306, "typical_volume": 21504676.55, "trend": 16.555, "fair_value": 15.832397, "relative_strength": -21.233821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.838649, "energy": 25.700675, "activity_lines": [ 14.042, 13.715818, 14.233524, 15.090667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.92, "volume": 42920528, "typical_volume": 22971035.95, "trend": 16.407, "fair_value": 15.827576, "relative_strength": -22.228568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.501207, "energy": 20.490664, "activity_lines": [ 14.363333, 13.953818, 14.246333, 14.985183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }