{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e9e9be9-cf0e-4a63-846e-b8746563c58a", "symbol": "EXXY", "name": "iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.088, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.885, "architecture_energy": 37.74, "architecture_maturity": 33.93, "architecture_confidence": 47.174, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.31, "rotation_up": 65.74, "upward_expansion": 68.06, "deceleration": 63.68, "rotation_down": 9.36, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.575001, 33.040637, 33.207834, 33.015989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.365002, "trend_reference": 32.312167, "distance_from_trend": 0.032583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.881154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.317128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1537, "excess_performance": -0.017192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10236, "relative_activity": 0.211142, "balance": 0.862461, "dry_up": 0.239814, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029868, "annualized_volatility": 0.21365, "from_high_reference": -0.067105, "from_low_reference": 0.37616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.312167, "fair_value_reference": 26.881154, "structural_low": 28.135, "invalidation": "A 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"fair_value": 26.663846, "relative_strength": -4.138309, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.220823, "energy": 26.634958, "activity_lines": [ 31.888334, 32.514454, 33.03, 32.51743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.445, "volume": 13719, "typical_volume": 51405.4, "trend": 31.6565, "fair_value": 26.718173, "relative_strength": 0.659137, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.064727, "energy": 19.713397, "activity_lines": [ 32.382334, 32.577454, 33.069405, 32.647484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.540001, "volume": 10109, "typical_volume": 50801.85, "trend": 31.906833, "fair_value": 26.77609, "relative_strength": 3.950898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.538491, "energy": 28.893539, "activity_lines": [ 33.179001, 32.851727, 33.195048, 32.833516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.5, "volume": 12440, "typical_volume": 49311.35, "trend": 32.129833, "fair_value": 26.829391, "relative_strength": 0.038132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.78175, "energy": 33.416378, "activity_lines": [ 33.468, 32.946909, 33.206833, 32.936301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.365002, "volume": 10236, "typical_volume": 48479.25, "trend": 32.312167, "fair_value": 26.881154, "relative_strength": -3.317128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.885141, "energy": 37.739847, "activity_lines": [ 33.575001, 33.040637, 33.207834, 33.015989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }