{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e9fd296-5a04-48a7-9bf3-66abbf1b47d5", "symbol": "GRV", "name": "Greenvale Energy Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.84, "architecture_energy": 48.611, "architecture_maturity": 25.03, "architecture_confidence": 69.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.7, "rotation_up": 13.89, "upward_expansion": 8.52, "deceleration": 44.34, "rotation_down": 67.58, "downward_expansion": 72.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031867, 0.035018, 0.035829, 0.035914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.036267, "distance_from_trend": -0.310662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051734, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.030658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324324, "excess_performance": -0.38803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324324, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.203764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10600070, "relative_activity": 4.340148, "balance": 0.203764, "dry_up": 2.729882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229231, "annualized_volatility": 0.777562, "from_high_reference": -0.642857, "from_low_reference": 0.086957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036267, "fair_value_reference": 0.051734, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046604, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03128, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.243243, "worst_return": -0.097561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135886, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.154068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243902, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.236111, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.249844, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073171, "worst_return": -0.608108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.195122, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.225143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.777778, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.483871, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.280702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02381, 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0.037229, 0.036976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.041, "volume": 3338635, "typical_volume": 1367383.5, "trend": 0.037267, "fair_value": 0.052978, "relative_strength": -3.965274, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.536835, "energy": 51.574425, "activity_lines": [ 0.041133, 0.039, 0.037662, 0.037224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.038, "volume": 1030935, "typical_volume": 1407012.5, "trend": 0.037233, "fair_value": 0.052593, "relative_strength": -10.480376, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.564683, "energy": 52.624246, "activity_lines": [ 0.040333, 0.038982, 0.037786, 0.037271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 11699444, "typical_volume": 1924129.5, "trend": 0.0368, "fair_value": 0.052157, "relative_strength": -34.823711, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.353923, "energy": 10.119672, "activity_lines": [ 0.0362, 0.0372, 0.036933, 0.036675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 10600070, "typical_volume": 2442329.3, "trend": 0.036267, "fair_value": 0.051734, "relative_strength": -43.030658, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.839969, "energy": 48.611075, "activity_lines": [ 0.031867, 0.035018, 0.035829, 0.035914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }