{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ea27aa1-21c3-4ec0-97a9-eee8090f40a5", "symbol": "603290", "name": "StarPower Semiconductor Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.02, "architecture_energy": 59.331, "architecture_maturity": 22.579, "architecture_confidence": 76.233, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 18.7, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 42.98, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 56.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.737332, 100.808901, 108.129299, 108.440844 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 88.529999, "trend_reference": 108.258265, "distance_from_trend": -0.182233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.747334, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.504887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199693, "excess_performance": -0.156489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182233, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37824737, "relative_activity": 0.980525, "balance": 0.81395, "dry_up": 1.083885, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184236, "annualized_volatility": 0.71685, "from_high_reference": -0.38248, "from_low_reference": 0.151535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.258265, "fair_value_reference": 100.747334, "structural_low": 76.879997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05699, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.056278, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094193, "worst_return": -0.051402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030707, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065653, "worst_return": -0.018452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018876, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16642, "worst_return": -0.219681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.694396, "energy": 5.169315, "activity_lines": [ 114.844001, 118.501307, 115.920985, 113.225369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.779999, "volume": 44588373, "typical_volume": 38530412.5, "trend": 109.053932, "fair_value": 101.671024, "relative_strength": -17.662048, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.614672, "energy": 32.644338, "activity_lines": [ 102.366001, 111.715717, 113.183994, 111.572728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.489998, "volume": 33706515, "typical_volume": 38393244.05, "trend": 108.510265, "fair_value": 101.144338, "relative_strength": -21.096695, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.001758, "energy": 50.080336, "activity_lines": [ 91.932666, 105.070609, 110.210909, 109.729893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.529999, "volume": 37824737, "typical_volume": 38576022.1, "trend": 108.258265, "fair_value": 100.747334, "relative_strength": -15.504887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.01998, "energy": 59.330876, "activity_lines": [ 87.737332, 100.808901, 108.129299, 108.440844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }