{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ea2f4da-bfcd-4926-8f5f-c05600179c6d", "symbol": "BLK", "name": "BlackRock Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.853, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.658, "architecture_energy": 68.321, "architecture_maturity": 25.574, "architecture_confidence": 64.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.67, "rotation_up": 75.19, "upward_expansion": 89.36, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 11.88, "downward_expansion": 16.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1092.735333, 1061.676182, 1049.486401, 1038.596469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1136.39, "trend_reference": 1038.105298, "distance_from_trend": 0.094677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 911.277147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.482244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08842, "excess_performance": -0.037205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018919, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08842, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.079492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3423572, "relative_activity": 0.951779, "balance": 1.079492, "dry_up": 1.115631, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054889, "annualized_volatility": 0.276692, "from_high_reference": -0.052927, "from_low_reference": 0.24585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1038.105298, "fair_value_reference": 911.277147, "structural_low": 912.140337, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002811, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008454, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.096785, "worst_return": -0.118856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020647, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.175852, "worst_return": -0.166478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008169, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088534, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.341356, "worst_return": 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"energy": 4.439159, "activity_lines": [ 1031.476, 1028.015213, 1028.032712, 1027.301858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1055.67, "volume": 3537378, "typical_volume": 3832070.85, "trend": 1035.375241, "fair_value": 905.411075, "relative_strength": -7.785801, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.182015, "energy": 15.704991, "activity_lines": [ 1042.11, 1032.138883, 1032.127026, 1028.568694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1090.39, "volume": 3866788, "typical_volume": 3697771.9, "trend": 1035.974261, "fair_value": 908.152807, "relative_strength": -5.458937, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.449333, "energy": 35.328823, "activity_lines": [ 1063.945333, 1042.939624, 1039.024733, 1032.118034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1136.39, "volume": 3423572, "typical_volume": 3597023.25, "trend": 1038.105298, "fair_value": 911.277147, "relative_strength": -4.482244, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.65804, "energy": 68.320876, "activity_lines": [ 1092.735333, 1061.676182, 1049.486401, 1038.596469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }