{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ea5dd97-984b-41ff-871a-0e18d03f4b74", "symbol": "RYM", "name": "Ryman Healthcare Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.222, "architecture_energy": 45.85, "architecture_maturity": 23.178, "architecture_confidence": 84.706, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.3, "rotation_up": 15.08, "upward_expansion": 6.08, "deceleration": 44.76, "rotation_down": 60.64, "downward_expansion": 79.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.145333, 2.182, 2.195476, 2.221849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.05, "trend_reference": 2.315667, "distance_from_trend": -0.114726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.733702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.673604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254545, "excess_performance": -0.282819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450947, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004348, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.101796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4494109, "relative_activity": 0.828219, "balance": 1.101796, "dry_up": 1.158938, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061914, "annualized_volatility": 0.305744, "from_high_reference": -0.327869, "from_low_reference": 0.030151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.315667, "fair_value_reference": 3.733702, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014541, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.019069, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128, "worst_return": -0.212174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148, "worst_return": -0.314783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.159195, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.154908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112, "worst_return": -0.319613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004577, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.422018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 3.821907, "relative_strength": -13.900287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.734237, "energy": 23.484178, "activity_lines": [ 2.210667, 2.227818, 2.21119, 2.265333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.25, "volume": 8474300, "typical_volume": 5486256.45, "trend": 2.372, "fair_value": 3.792804, "relative_strength": -13.329593, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.071247, "energy": 23.471694, "activity_lines": [ 2.219333, 2.232545, 2.215381, 2.255935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.14, "volume": 6906711, "typical_volume": 5471417.25, "trend": 2.346333, "fair_value": 3.762804, "relative_strength": -16.786351, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.813182, "energy": 28.283952, "activity_lines": [ 2.192667, 2.215091, 2.209333, 2.240968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.05, "volume": 4494109, "typical_volume": 5426230.4, "trend": 2.315667, "fair_value": 3.733702, "relative_strength": -20.673604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.222167, "energy": 45.849694, "activity_lines": [ 2.145333, 2.182, 2.195476, 2.221849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }