{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ea7a1f1-d098-4702-8806-cf07c71e82b1", "symbol": "6407", "name": "Mutual-Tek Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.599, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.334, "architecture_energy": 54.23, "architecture_maturity": 14.039, "architecture_confidence": 73.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.88, "rotation_up": 15.88, "upward_expansion": 26.71, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 64.97, "downward_expansion": 54.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.166667, 24.609636, 27.291953, 27.195162 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.4, "trend_reference": 25.614334, "distance_from_trend": -0.12549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.779138, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.644444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.318681, "excess_performance": -0.122691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.318681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.171129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1087674, "relative_activity": 0.103842, "balance": 1.171129, "dry_up": 0.169439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177461, "annualized_volatility": 0.897802, "from_high_reference": -0.655667, "from_low_reference": 0.445783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.614334, "fair_value_reference": 17.779138, "structural_low": 16.193334, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042192, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162679, "worst_return": -0.0825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020623, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.904306, "worst_return": -0.161207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.182279, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.138756, "worst_return": 0.017251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.268947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 9.094447, "volume": 459818, "typical_volume": 837420.05, "trend": 9.045659, "fair_value": 8.610704, "relative_strength": -2.152362, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.7343, "energy": 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"activity_lines": [ 26.974223, 27.93291, 29.628048, 27.752266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.65, "volume": 1914779, "typical_volume": 11111732.3, "trend": 25.071334, "fair_value": 17.512956, "relative_strength": -22.213353, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.428524, "energy": 32.989752, "activity_lines": [ 25.321778, 26.858425, 29.051651, 27.607327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1902559, "typical_volume": 11168238.45, "trend": 25.208445, "fair_value": 17.59253, "relative_strength": -23.804682, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.552887, "energy": 51.02874, "activity_lines": [ 23.842222, 25.72497, 28.365778, 27.396273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.15, "volume": 2193987, "typical_volume": 11189234.95, "trend": 25.458778, "fair_value": 17.694648, "relative_strength": -13.994404, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.831317, "energy": 49.97841, "activity_lines": [ 23.836667, 25.355758, 27.976476, 27.392502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.4, "volume": 1087674, "typical_volume": 10474297.35, "trend": 25.614334, "fair_value": 17.779138, "relative_strength": -25.644444, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.333835, "energy": 54.229506, "activity_lines": [ 23.166667, 24.609636, 27.291953, 27.195162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }