{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eaf1d64-8ea8-4139-b3ac-886be1000a99", "symbol": "WFIN", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.414, "architecture_energy": 92.06, "architecture_maturity": 31.586, "architecture_confidence": 70.481, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 85.63, "upward_expansion": 99.24, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 9.95, "downward_expansion": 21.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.661999, 89.137272, 85.940618, 83.833806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 91.529999, "trend_reference": 81.736, "distance_from_trend": 0.119825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.779231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.542564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135326, "excess_performance": -0.035566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120235, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.469937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4649, "relative_activity": 2.521697, "balance": 12.469937, "dry_up": 0.749485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017741, "annualized_volatility": 0.130175, "from_high_reference": -0.010914, "from_low_reference": 0.233226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.736, "fair_value_reference": 67.779231, "structural_low": 74.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.027055, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.000107, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.105335, "worst_return": -0.127723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.035812, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.00574, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.1201, "worst_return": -0.114006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077372, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.005665, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.196183, "worst_return": -0.068645, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 2232.3, "trend": 80.754, "fair_value": 66.962372, "relative_strength": -0.271654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.07879, "energy": 96.39256, "activity_lines": [ 88.282666, 86.173999, 83.325618, 81.93729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.57, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 1833.1, "trend": 81.086333, "fair_value": 67.231186, "relative_strength": 0.842901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.171093, "energy": 95.782566, "activity_lines": [ 89.318666, 87.290727, 84.231809, 82.57058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.559998, "volume": 454, "typical_volume": 1718.35, "trend": 81.423666, "fair_value": 67.501955, "relative_strength": 0.214058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.753385, "energy": 92.351781, "activity_lines": [ 89.994665, 88.207454, 85.075189, 83.181784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.529999, "volume": 4649, "typical_volume": 1843.6, "trend": 81.736, "fair_value": 67.779231, "relative_strength": -1.542564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.413997, "energy": 92.059707, "activity_lines": [ 90.661999, 89.137272, 85.940618, 83.833806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }