{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eb35444-61cf-48ee-bb90-6441eccbc1e2", "symbol": "NVO", "name": "Novo Resources Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.999, "architecture_energy": 45.179, "architecture_maturity": 82.302, "architecture_confidence": 83.329, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.93, "rotation_up": 24.76, "upward_expansion": 6.39, "deceleration": 59.47, "rotation_down": 51.17, "downward_expansion": 79.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.061636, 0.066929, 0.074774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.092167, "distance_from_trend": -0.349005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.114904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.741628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.555556, "excess_performance": -0.675977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.349005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.497416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.555556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.495943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 676000, "relative_activity": 0.418663, "balance": 15.495943, "dry_up": 0.538053, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210256, "annualized_volatility": 0.491009, "from_high_reference": -0.785714, "from_low_reference": 59.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.092167, "fair_value_reference": 0.114904, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.050012, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.057829, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.326389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.153846, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.179111, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.149254, "worst_return": -0.581633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.352941, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.388892, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": -0.170732, "worst_return": -0.687023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.514305, "energy": 89.169739, "activity_lines": [ 0.066, 0.069909, 0.07519, 0.087473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.06, "volume": 206900, "typical_volume": 1952885.0, "trend": 0.1015, "fair_value": 0.118878, "relative_strength": -50.488184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.107205, "energy": 57.854392, "activity_lines": [ 0.063333, 0.067636, 0.072976, 0.084667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.06, "volume": 225900, "typical_volume": 1905705.0, "trend": 0.099667, "fair_value": 0.117821, "relative_strength": -49.879766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.197538, "energy": 56.84696, "activity_lines": [ 0.061667, 0.065727, 0.071071, 0.081989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.06, "volume": 1507600, "typical_volume": 1861550.0, "trend": 0.0975, "fair_value": 0.116923, "relative_strength": -49.473364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.64403, "energy": 54.231509, "activity_lines": [ 0.060667, 0.064091, 0.069476, 0.07943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 1065600, "typical_volume": 1794735.0, "trend": 0.094667, "fair_value": 0.115962, "relative_strength": -48.681058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.633748, "energy": 49.519798, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.062727, 0.068119, 0.077011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 676000, "typical_volume": 1614665.0, "trend": 0.092167, "fair_value": 0.114904, "relative_strength": -49.741628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.998846, "energy": 45.179461, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.061636, 0.066929, 0.074774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }