{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eb5518a-ac4b-4383-ac08-27b01c5fc6c4", "symbol": "HPAW", "name": "HSBC ETFs PLC - HSBC MSCI World Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.186, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.407, "architecture_energy": 69.205, "architecture_maturity": 78.623, "architecture_confidence": 64.113, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 55.13, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.21, "rotation_down": 28.74, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.740334, 32.592273, 32.188572, 31.567925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.465, "trend_reference": 30.877, "distance_from_trend": 0.083816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.099904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234875, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.203739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132104, "excess_performance": -0.038787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036236, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.99619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1112, "relative_activity": 0.183276, "balance": 8.99619, "dry_up": 0.152909, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015171, "annualized_volatility": 0.123005, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.200323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.877, "fair_value_reference": 27.099904, "structural_low": 27.879999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008681, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.07069, "worst_return": -0.089289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001083, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.147923, "worst_return": -0.079706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04801, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003537, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.151307, "worst_return": -0.0681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 30.637, "fair_value": 26.884519, "relative_strength": -5.279856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.895819, "energy": 79.958147, "activity_lines": [ 32.557, 32.411727, 31.748572, 31.189914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.154999, "volume": 188, "typical_volume": 6178.8, "trend": 30.704833, "fair_value": 26.950897, "relative_strength": -5.951208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.1051, "energy": 63.890187, "activity_lines": [ 32.452, 32.386818, 31.859738, 31.287849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.365002, "volume": 1038, "typical_volume": 6059.2, "trend": 30.784, "fair_value": 27.021442, "relative_strength": -5.752877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.812317, "energy": 58.843308, "activity_lines": [ 32.422667, 32.390909, 31.979048, 31.394957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.465, "volume": 1112, "typical_volume": 6067.35, "trend": 30.877, "fair_value": 27.099904, "relative_strength": -5.203739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.40745, "energy": 69.205361, "activity_lines": [ 32.740334, 32.592273, 32.188572, 31.567925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }