{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eb7e696-aa23-40a0-8a32-766e83b261cf", "symbol": "WEB", "name": "Web Travel Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.73, "architecture_energy": 42.419, "architecture_maturity": 15.122, "architecture_confidence": 70.55, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.68, "rotation_up": 58.75, "upward_expansion": 39.77, "deceleration": 28.19, "rotation_down": 22.99, "downward_expansion": 33.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.07, 2.926, 2.788714, 2.81428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.43, "trend_reference": 3.011333, "distance_from_trend": 0.13903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.45484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.571618, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.158784, "excess_performance": 0.095078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.764626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12703825, "relative_activity": 1.125489, "balance": 1.764626, "dry_up": 1.185519, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094752, "annualized_volatility": 0.714678, "from_high_reference": -0.319444, "from_low_reference": 0.580645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.011333, "fair_value_reference": 5.45484, "structural_low": 2.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007639, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.05814, "worst_return": -0.057654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08804, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.080871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202997, "worst_return": -0.427435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053533, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.035996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227787, "worst_return": -0.40159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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2.44, "volume": 7997517, "typical_volume": 11435806.8, "trend": 3.178667, "fair_value": 5.542853, "relative_strength": -33.842785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.424435, "energy": 22.066477, "activity_lines": [ 2.680667, 2.661636, 2.658048, 2.808602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.57, "volume": 11220050, "typical_volume": 11047798.75, "trend": 3.099667, "fair_value": 5.509263, "relative_strength": -29.327206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.166274, "energy": 30.753631, "activity_lines": [ 2.610667, 2.654364, 2.647476, 2.769333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.42, "volume": 21604233, "typical_volume": 11514795.95, "trend": 3.053667, "fair_value": 5.482468, "relative_strength": -7.540851, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.743627, "energy": 8.462053, "activity_lines": [ 2.853333, 2.799273, 2.719429, 2.79 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.43, "volume": 12703825, "typical_volume": 11287380.05, "trend": 3.011333, "fair_value": 5.45484, "relative_strength": -9.571618, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.729722, "energy": 42.419137, "activity_lines": [ 3.07, 2.926, 2.788714, 2.81428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }