{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eb838e4-d96b-47e2-b663-c032ebf76a16", "symbol": "BMAR", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - March", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.278, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.952, "architecture_energy": 74.399, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.374, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 65.03, "upward_expansion": 89.71, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 25.04, "downward_expansion": 14.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.131333, 57.80802, 57.335563, 56.51982 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.875, "trend_reference": 55.51719, "distance_from_trend": 0.060482, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.775988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.677184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095414, "excess_performance": -0.030211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060482, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.582268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29333, "relative_activity": 0.390509, "balance": 1.582268, "dry_up": 0.570467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012785, "annualized_volatility": 0.092986, "from_high_reference": -0.001103, "from_low_reference": 0.179151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.51719, "fair_value_reference": 46.775988, "structural_low": 51.3305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.010448, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.003597, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.049751, "worst_return": -0.055184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.027519, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001594, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.089064, "worst_return": -0.0876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076927, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.008254, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.134217, "worst_return": -0.123427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156347, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.028128, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.209985, "worst_return": -0.01875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004052, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04964, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.028066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 58.01, "volume": 24583, "typical_volume": 114106.6, "trend": 54.87436, "fair_value": 46.248813, "relative_strength": -2.01462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.837103, "energy": 62.922443, "activity_lines": [ 57.466073, 57.341922, 56.529642, 55.776535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.62, "volume": 100685, "typical_volume": 113897.7, "trend": 55.033547, "fair_value": 46.377698, "relative_strength": -1.091402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.653442, "energy": 64.953823, "activity_lines": [ 57.554873, 57.411469, 56.723187, 55.953673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.4406, "volume": 17001, "typical_volume": 88256.6, "trend": 55.174233, "fair_value": 46.503995, "relative_strength": -0.778676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.906409, "energy": 67.59732, "activity_lines": [ 57.553013, 57.433929, 56.884312, 56.108967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.0058, "volume": 24383, "typical_volume": 78791.3, "trend": 55.338343, "fair_value": 46.637238, "relative_strength": -0.827995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.151613, "energy": 69.712582, "activity_lines": [ 57.7465, 57.549555, 57.080596, 56.291648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.875, "volume": 29333, "typical_volume": 75114.75, "trend": 55.51719, "fair_value": 46.775988, "relative_strength": -2.677184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.952271, "energy": 74.399343, "activity_lines": [ 58.131333, 57.80802, 57.335563, 56.51982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }