{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ebbb738-c5df-43a4-8cd5-b86064fcb1f1", "symbol": "300654", "name": "Astro-century Education&Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.438, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.473, "architecture_energy": 18.969, "architecture_maturity": 16.287, "architecture_confidence": 57.361, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.1, "rotation_up": 54.3, "upward_expansion": 39.15, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 18.22, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.066667, 10.621273, 10.511487, 10.660717 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.03, "trend_reference": 10.904733, "distance_from_trend": 0.011487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.408263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.645668, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103846, "excess_performance": -0.111246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011487, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006457, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.694165, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196110764, "relative_activity": 3.183334, "balance": 1.694165, "dry_up": 1.991944, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127926, "annualized_volatility": 0.43817, "from_high_reference": -0.203061, "from_low_reference": 0.266361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.904733, "fair_value_reference": 10.408263, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001237, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.003073, "regime_survival": 0.294118, "best_return": 0.181366, "worst_return": -0.251154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067924, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197842, "worst_return": -0.150524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061292, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062355, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.28312, "worst_return": -0.169173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077552, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.124412, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.235345, "worst_return": -0.049269, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.549154, "energy": 62.821903, "activity_lines": [ 9.614667, 9.899666, 10.336836, 10.595188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.38, "volume": 81650639, "typical_volume": 50658728.6, "trend": 10.691035, "fair_value": 10.441082, "relative_strength": -12.149201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.445544, "energy": 34.791365, "activity_lines": [ 9.837333, 9.923384, 10.305719, 10.576366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.94, "volume": 105064316, "typical_volume": 51687633.4, "trend": 10.744598, "fair_value": 10.428379, "relative_strength": 2.110588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.382147, "energy": 14.44127, "activity_lines": [ 10.240667, 10.058468, 10.335601, 10.592429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.17, "volume": 86025051, "typical_volume": 52289157.7, "trend": 10.801185, "fair_value": 10.420812, "relative_strength": 4.568715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.512519, "energy": 13.974253, "activity_lines": [ 10.624, 10.247221, 10.395087, 10.619874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.27, "volume": 103658499, "typical_volume": 54843671.2, "trend": 10.865748, "fair_value": 10.412876, "relative_strength": 7.55674, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.586006, "energy": 17.553492, "activity_lines": [ 10.938, 10.462909, 10.465016, 10.65012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.03, "volume": 196110764, "typical_volume": 61605465.1, "trend": 10.904733, "fair_value": 10.408263, "relative_strength": 0.645668, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.472928, "energy": 18.969167, "activity_lines": [ 11.066667, 10.621273, 10.511487, 10.660717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }