{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ebd2dc6-e5a7-49af-9bf3-6321ba055395", "symbol": "EPAC", "name": "Enerpac Tool Group Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.035, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.339, "architecture_energy": 5.543, "architecture_maturity": 7.5, "architecture_confidence": 47.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.31, "rotation_up": 28.27, "upward_expansion": 31.8, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 29.97, "downward_expansion": 49.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.994667, 35.710727, 35.318571, 35.704323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.72, "trend_reference": 36.779, "distance_from_trend": 0.025585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.929265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.632976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116007, "excess_performance": -0.241631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116007, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.713372, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1514690, "relative_activity": 0.641801, "balance": 1.713372, "dry_up": 1.027566, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059676, "annualized_volatility": 0.25613, "from_high_reference": -0.161778, "from_low_reference": 0.165997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.779, "fair_value_reference": 37.929265, "structural_low": 32.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011041, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.013909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091398, "worst_return": -0.110195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004241, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.045656, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.282871, "worst_return": -0.239508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.102679, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108482, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319161, "worst_return": -0.247261, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.13, "volume": 5184894, "typical_volume": 2218465.25, "trend": 37.267, "fair_value": 37.704534, "relative_strength": -18.270113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.066003, "energy": 15.382226, "activity_lines": [ 35.581333, 35.153818, 35.150952, 36.063118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.61, "volume": 3076242, "typical_volume": 2301798.65, "trend": 37.179667, "fair_value": 37.750711, "relative_strength": -17.79545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.433651, "energy": 13.911878, "activity_lines": [ 35.222667, 35.1, 35.063048, 35.891699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.67, "volume": 2269845, "typical_volume": 2333499.25, "trend": 36.991, "fair_value": 37.801745, "relative_strength": -16.773978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.593875, "energy": 23.259124, "activity_lines": [ 34.913333, 35.073636, 35.010333, 35.729785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.74, "volume": 2839703, "typical_volume": 2385546.25, "trend": 36.863667, "fair_value": 37.856635, "relative_strength": -14.754886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.252315, "energy": 17.619447, "activity_lines": [ 35.089333, 35.223273, 35.069857, 35.649075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.72, "volume": 1514690, "typical_volume": 2360063.45, "trend": 36.779, "fair_value": 37.929265, "relative_strength": -12.632976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.339381, "energy": 5.542754, "activity_lines": [ 35.994667, 35.710727, 35.318571, 35.704323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }