{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ec0f5ff-f553-4574-85b8-3fcf50741997", "symbol": "WMGT", "name": "WisdomTree Megatrends UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.177, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.328, "architecture_energy": 55.847, "architecture_maturity": 4.703, "architecture_confidence": 72.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 26.24, "deceleration": 50.62, "rotation_down": 69.12, "downward_expansion": 53.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.229334, 41.278182, 42.453715, 42.129796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.325001, "trend_reference": 41.691167, "distance_from_trend": -0.008783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.956718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.402729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058394, "excess_performance": -0.024489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058394, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.981841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1633, "relative_activity": 2.086501, "balance": 3.981841, "dry_up": 0.924104, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044897, "annualized_volatility": 0.274131, "from_high_reference": -0.118776, "from_low_reference": 0.277829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.691167, "fair_value_reference": 32.956718, "structural_low": 37.035, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041488, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003646, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073655, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-09", "close": 27.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 27.825001, "volume": 557, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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41.86986 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 45.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 804.1, "trend": 40.811833, "fair_value": 32.493589, "relative_strength": 10.824542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.600546, "energy": 53.188928, "activity_lines": [ 44.918, 44.834727, 43.1495, 42.197118 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 42.360001, "volume": 235, "typical_volume": 786.5, "trend": 41.013667, "fair_value": 32.57252, "relative_strength": 0.008006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.367024, "energy": 28.483114, "activity_lines": [ 44.029667, 44.460455, 43.187905, 42.297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 43.514999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 786.3, "trend": 41.215833, "fair_value": 32.659365, "relative_strength": 0.719877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.207174, "energy": 23.259121, "activity_lines": [ 43.707333, 44.294727, 43.320524, 42.458376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.205002, "volume": 53, "typical_volume": 773.0, "trend": 41.3835, "fair_value": 32.734528, "relative_strength": -1.171688, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.08067, "energy": 20.514694, "activity_lines": [ 43.125, 43.880546, 43.315048, 42.522194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.040001, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 773.25, "trend": 41.5025, "fair_value": 32.791602, "relative_strength": -7.00199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.867236, "energy": 26.975352, "activity_lines": [ 41.987001, 43.078364, 43.096072, 42.435516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.189999, "volume": 241, "typical_volume": 662.0, "trend": 41.605833, "fair_value": 32.848954, "relative_strength": -6.582525, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.235993, "energy": 37.482051, "activity_lines": [ 41.141, 42.407909, 42.898452, 42.350839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.490002, "volume": 1010, "typical_volume": 702.1, "trend": 41.635333, "fair_value": 32.892346, "relative_strength": -10.605929, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.460859, "energy": 63.149684, "activity_lines": [ 40.083667, 41.525455, 42.539381, 42.149817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.325001, "volume": 1633, "typical_volume": 782.65, "trend": 41.691167, "fair_value": 32.956718, "relative_strength": -5.402729, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.328195, "energy": 55.84669, "activity_lines": [ 40.229334, 41.278182, 42.453715, 42.129796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }