{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ec83df7-2b59-4f47-ae21-73df4773cf7d", "symbol": "KBH", "name": "KB Home", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.58, "architecture_energy": 13.731, "architecture_maturity": 23.651, "architecture_confidence": 53.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.6, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 32.89, "deceleration": 65.94, "rotation_down": 28.92, "downward_expansion": 19.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.612548, 56.98206, 54.868342, 54.664126 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.59, "trend_reference": 55.405787, "distance_from_trend": 0.057471, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.72126, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.382989, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033675, "excess_performance": -0.1593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142189, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.891572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4552822, "relative_activity": 0.762912, "balance": 1.891572, "dry_up": 0.86323, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079147, "annualized_volatility": 0.418665, "from_high_reference": -0.135906, "from_low_reference": 0.330835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.405787, "fair_value_reference": 60.72126, "structural_low": 44.025, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022853, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.003383, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.143606, "worst_return": -0.20208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037971, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.027696, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.192861, "worst_return": -0.22273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03405, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.126877, "worst_return": -0.335944, "sufficient": 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60.650107, "relative_strength": -10.273268, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.366747, "energy": 21.871071, "activity_lines": [ 57.214385, 56.463129, 54.182754, 54.51681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.729747, "volume": 5777415, "typical_volume": 6100106.0, "trend": 55.487809, "fair_value": 60.667508, "relative_strength": -13.692153, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.601051, "energy": 4.627843, "activity_lines": [ 56.020082, 56.427388, 54.346602, 54.463984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.59, "volume": 4552822, "typical_volume": 5967692.05, "trend": 55.405787, "fair_value": 60.72126, "relative_strength": -10.382989, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.579759, "energy": 13.730638, "activity_lines": [ 56.612548, 56.98206, 54.868342, 54.664126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }