{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ecde365-cd0f-46e1-a78a-c74910cfe99a", "symbol": "DXC", "name": "DXC Technology Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.648, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.698, "architecture_energy": 14.67, "architecture_maturity": 91.336, "architecture_confidence": 62.971, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.55, "rotation_up": 38.53, "upward_expansion": 28.05, "deceleration": 46.5, "rotation_down": 15.2, "downward_expansion": 45.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.504667, 10.002727, 9.95519, 10.477441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.84, "trend_reference": 11.402333, "distance_from_trend": -0.049317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.158205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.368232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.251726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.286842, "excess_performance": -0.412467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.368232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.547513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20478001, "relative_activity": 0.887206, "balance": 1.547513, "dry_up": 0.893828, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11581, "annualized_volatility": 0.589104, "from_high_reference": -0.308673, "from_low_reference": 0.372135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.402333, "fair_value_reference": 17.158205, "structural_low": 7.9001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.008303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004033, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.2223, "worst_return": -0.310717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.045078, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.105321, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.122963, "worst_return": -0.277311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.124408, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.169167, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.045184, "worst_return": -0.205693, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": 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12.015333, "fair_value": 17.502756, "relative_strength": -34.631467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.079818, "energy": 36.745989, "activity_lines": [ 9.271333, 9.248545, 10.004381, 10.828022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.47, "volume": 15804793, "typical_volume": 21624752.95, "trend": 11.816667, "fair_value": 17.384551, "relative_strength": -31.812417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.021375, "energy": 30.73886, "activity_lines": [ 9.373333, 9.286545, 9.884762, 10.663806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.05, "volume": 15039694, "typical_volume": 21739581.45, "trend": 11.648333, "fair_value": 17.27141, "relative_strength": -26.52157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.912442, "energy": 21.532185, "activity_lines": [ 9.648667, 9.429273, 9.835238, 10.549828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.24, "volume": 31200929, "typical_volume": 22783294.5, "trend": 11.553667, "fair_value": 17.219615, "relative_strength": -18.213676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.051512, "energy": 14.561567, "activity_lines": [ 10.224, 9.768182, 9.912857, 10.523484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.84, "volume": 20478001, "typical_volume": 23081451.15, "trend": 11.402333, "fair_value": 17.158205, "relative_strength": -23.251726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.697619, "energy": 14.669872, "activity_lines": [ 10.504667, 10.002727, 9.95519, 10.477441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }