{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ed18367-1fcb-46cf-a8b4-1462e61e1ab2", "symbol": "000697", "name": "Ligeance Aerospace Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.752, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.02, "architecture_energy": 68.61, "architecture_maturity": 16.49, "architecture_confidence": 69.821, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.93, "rotation_up": 16.32, "upward_expansion": 23.97, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 73.81, "downward_expansion": 65.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.333333, 8.960545, 9.887286, 9.99071 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.61, "trend_reference": 9.909333, "distance_from_trend": -0.131122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.670321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.495079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029312, "excess_performance": -0.036712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033622, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.586061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32545300, "relative_activity": 0.587087, "balance": 0.841038, "dry_up": 0.789804, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125525, "annualized_volatility": 0.522231, "from_high_reference": -0.351657, "from_low_reference": 0.194175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.909333, "fair_value_reference": 7.670321, "structural_low": 7.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039766, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.031967, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.115385, "worst_return": -0.142633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005057, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223776, "worst_return": -0.072222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.119444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353147, "worst_return": -0.221239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.226744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073566, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.05, "volume": 14101779, "typical_volume": 37873841.2, "trend": 6.583, "fair_value": 8.215833, "relative_strength": -12.164648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.759509, 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51.807863, "activity_lines": [ 9.215333, 10.053818, 10.487095, 10.309226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.02, "volume": 49653890, "typical_volume": 58425379.1, "trend": 9.927, "fair_value": 7.641603, "relative_strength": -13.941796, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.275839, "energy": 64.912053, "activity_lines": [ 8.631333, 9.558, 10.250762, 10.184108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.23, "volume": 41224000, "typical_volume": 57179823.3, "trend": 9.910667, "fair_value": 7.654487, "relative_strength": -10.119965, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.253559, "energy": 68.54537, "activity_lines": [ 8.349333, 9.19, 10.04481, 10.074624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.61, "volume": 32545300, "typical_volume": 55435177.9, "trend": 9.909333, "fair_value": 7.670321, "relative_strength": -10.495079, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.019509, "energy": 68.610141, "activity_lines": [ 8.333333, 8.960545, 9.887286, 9.99071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }