{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ed646c4-ab34-417f-901f-3807ae3039c2", "symbol": "DGSE", "name": "WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.165, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.738, "architecture_energy": 14.537, "architecture_maturity": 52.49, "architecture_confidence": 73.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.2, "rotation_up": 25.28, "upward_expansion": 44.49, "deceleration": 82.21, "rotation_down": 34.63, "downward_expansion": 31.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.116533, 19.271828, 19.301619, 19.170995 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.364, "trend_reference": 18.99872, "distance_from_trend": 0.019227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.006573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.076496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044279, "excess_performance": -0.038605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.190445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30, "relative_activity": 0.060631, "balance": 0.190445, "dry_up": 0.832154, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039372, "annualized_volatility": 0.16242, "from_high_reference": -0.173686, "from_low_reference": 0.133116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.99872, "fair_value_reference": 17.006573, "structural_low": 17.812847, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.018355, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.009579, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.067182, "worst_return": -0.03158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.050428, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.004167, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12204, "worst_return": -0.013387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073476, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.043537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178622, "worst_return": -0.014494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021705, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.174092, "energy": 22.572314, "activity_lines": [ 19.420105, 19.452, 19.314626, 19.138602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.233999, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 440.15, "trend": 18.916854, "fair_value": 16.952948, "relative_strength": -4.599061, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.373973, "energy": 18.975863, "activity_lines": [ 19.317091, 19.420245, 19.32897, 19.163193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.634001, "volume": 1101, "typical_volume": 494.65, "trend": 18.960211, "fair_value": 16.976922, "relative_strength": -7.52727, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.437534, "energy": 20.880583, "activity_lines": [ 19.0724, 19.274237, 19.28181, 19.144944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.364, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 494.8, "trend": 18.99872, "fair_value": 17.006573, "relative_strength": -5.076496, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.738469, "energy": 14.537062, "activity_lines": [ 19.116533, 19.271828, 19.301619, 19.170995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }