{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ed78348-7b5b-497a-919b-be8517c8d503", "symbol": "TRTX", "name": "TPG RE Finance Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.853, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.264, "architecture_energy": 25.114, "architecture_maturity": 37.476, "architecture_confidence": 64.629, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.18, "rotation_up": 38.98, "upward_expansion": 66.95, "deceleration": 81.68, "rotation_down": 30.05, "downward_expansion": 19.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.267333, 8.33409, 8.175337, 8.061306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.05, "trend_reference": 8.008207, "distance_from_trend": 0.005219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.758056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191171, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.81319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030053, "excess_performance": -0.155678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039291, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.220388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4692708, "relative_activity": 1.443141, "balance": 2.220388, "dry_up": 1.243756, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044924, "annualized_volatility": 0.214953, "from_high_reference": -0.088851, "from_low_reference": 0.114381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.008207, "fair_value_reference": 6.758056, "structural_low": 7.223742, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.015116, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.019656, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.172367, "worst_return": -0.141753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01039, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032966, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.133338, "worst_return": -0.070834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031424, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.036022, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.183633, "worst_return": -0.030053, "sufficient": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.97, "volume": 5200452, "typical_volume": 3239866.8, "trend": 8.019302, "fair_value": 6.737424, "relative_strength": -8.895946, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.125865, "energy": 39.472203, "activity_lines": [ 8.401333, 8.375776, 8.168569, 8.059326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.05, "volume": 4692708, "typical_volume": 3251731.75, "trend": 8.008207, "fair_value": 6.758056, "relative_strength": -10.81319, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.264447, "energy": 25.114189, "activity_lines": [ 8.267333, 8.33409, 8.175337, 8.061306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }