{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1edafdb8-783f-490b-b0de-fd488a6640d9", "symbol": "HAIN", "name": "The Hain Celestial Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.993, "architecture_energy": 43.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.35, "rotation_up": 23.99, "upward_expansion": 6.2, "deceleration": 52.19, "rotation_down": 48.59, "downward_expansion": 77.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.549873, 0.55752, 0.625689, 0.671307 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5955, "trend_reference": 0.76766, "distance_from_trend": -0.224266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.027082, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.881542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -50.894995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.515854, "excess_performance": -0.703307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224266, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199309, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.881542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008813, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.50895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.515854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3414599, "relative_activity": 0.642818, "balance": 0.381117, "dry_up": 0.604144, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179305, "annualized_volatility": 0.905814, "from_high_reference": -0.725576, "from_low_reference": 0.232919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.76766, "fair_value_reference": 5.027082, "structural_low": 0.483, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.066322, "positive_rate": 0.372549, "directional_follow_through": 0.627451, "median_excess_return": -0.067201, "regime_survival": 0.901961, "best_return": 0.500974, "worst_return": -0.510836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.154839, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.181033, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.098176, "worst_return": -0.478114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.234317, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.322502, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.060954, "worst_return": -0.66951, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.126927, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.210414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 5892254.85, "trend": 0.826527, "fair_value": 5.252697, "relative_strength": -55.326806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.482769, "energy": 61.5456, "activity_lines": [ 0.55766, 0.603895, 0.667015, 0.72261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5301, "volume": 3583262, "typical_volume": 5658821.6, "trend": 0.80553, "fair_value": 5.174365, "relative_strength": -55.878229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.243786, "energy": 55.424343, "activity_lines": [ 0.546773, 0.581696, 0.651427, 0.703486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4984, "volume": 3317573, "typical_volume": 5463553.1, "trend": 0.787143, "fair_value": 5.10147, "relative_strength": -57.788212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.047321, "energy": 62.218765, "activity_lines": [ 0.530373, 0.55824, 0.633538, 0.683671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5955, "volume": 3414599, "typical_volume": 5311922.75, "trend": 0.76766, "fair_value": 5.027082, "relative_strength": -50.894995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.993067, "energy": 43.953135, "activity_lines": [ 0.549873, 0.55752, 0.625689, 0.671307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }