{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ee06a19-f0fe-4120-a5a1-1fb3d0c2edb5", "symbol": "DGP", "name": "Deutsche Bank AG London", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.231, "architecture_energy": 46.996, "architecture_maturity": 61.003, "architecture_confidence": 72.659, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.04, "rotation_up": 25.9, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 66.17, "rotation_down": 51.59, "downward_expansion": 73.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.9311, 137.454111, 148.617696, 160.147825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 150.13, "trend_reference": 175.180317, "distance_from_trend": -0.142997, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.375178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.557766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.766541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282179, "excess_performance": -0.407804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142997, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.557766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.542472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.342849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 780511, "relative_activity": 0.841239, "balance": 0.342849, "dry_up": 0.673126, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097244, "annualized_volatility": 0.520175, "from_high_reference": -0.406014, "from_low_reference": 0.505109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.180317, "fair_value_reference": 96.375178, "structural_low": 125.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021741, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.153795, "worst_return": -0.111245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089348, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.029936, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.187784, "worst_return": -0.164398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102934, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181908, "worst_return": -0.007486, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 132.5168, "volume": 646882, "typical_volume": 896541.75, "trend": 177.018733, "fair_value": 95.080531, "relative_strength": -22.889922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.936776, "energy": 73.976662, "activity_lines": [ 132.858753, 138.195338, 152.607003, 164.738635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.7375, "volume": 503103, "typical_volume": 907704.2, "trend": 176.006317, "fair_value": 95.663849, "relative_strength": -24.23316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.745962, "energy": 61.870075, "activity_lines": [ 132.247427, 135.828475, 149.539791, 161.817265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.13, "volume": 780511, "typical_volume": 927810.85, "trend": 175.180317, "fair_value": 96.375178, "relative_strength": -16.766541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.231126, "energy": 46.996046, "activity_lines": [ 137.9311, 137.454111, 148.617696, 160.147825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }