{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ee4ec23-e67a-47d7-bdb8-57057890adbf", "symbol": "PSCM", "name": "INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.482, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.159, "architecture_energy": 28.258, "architecture_maturity": 6.329, "architecture_confidence": 61.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.27, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 51.9, "rotation_down": 58.34, "downward_expansion": 48.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.89258, 100.0313, 101.621727, 101.042253 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 102.791, "trend_reference": 99.8832, "distance_from_trend": 0.029112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.630446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.842425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043849, "excess_performance": -0.143605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043849, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.254133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7173, "relative_activity": 0.578689, "balance": 0.254133, "dry_up": 0.979791, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046655, "annualized_volatility": 0.255845, "from_high_reference": -0.063356, "from_low_reference": 0.421243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.8832, "fair_value_reference": 77.630446, "structural_low": 88.758683, "invalidation": "A 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77.211503, "relative_strength": 0.095848, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.130573, "energy": 31.866063, "activity_lines": [ 98.4352, 100.867233, 101.96777, 101.017213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.2106, "volume": 11478, "typical_volume": 12514.15, "trend": 99.492815, "fair_value": 77.395894, "relative_strength": -2.308705, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.606265, "energy": 46.817393, "activity_lines": [ 97.26154, 99.799802, 101.489935, 100.829467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.791, "volume": 7173, "typical_volume": 12395.25, "trend": 99.8832, "fair_value": 77.630446, "relative_strength": -0.842425, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.159271, "energy": 28.257951, "activity_lines": [ 98.89258, 100.0313, 101.621727, 101.042253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }