{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ee72574-0d87-45f1-84fc-38feb26e104c", "symbol": "AB", "name": "AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.425, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.975, "architecture_energy": 16.732, "architecture_maturity": 17.025, "architecture_confidence": 66.983, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.74, "rotation_up": 31.06, "upward_expansion": 23.26, "deceleration": 42.0, "rotation_down": 24.68, "downward_expansion": 48.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.146667, 36.925091, 37.134856, 37.262578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 37.12, "trend_reference": 37.536016, "distance_from_trend": -0.011083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.411999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.691097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015341, "excess_performance": -0.140965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1143870, "relative_activity": 0.806494, "balance": 0.503004, "dry_up": 0.810671, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034767, "annualized_volatility": 0.178872, "from_high_reference": -0.119809, "from_low_reference": 0.065124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.536016, "fair_value_reference": 32.411999, "structural_low": 34.850398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005799, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.013491, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.100932, "worst_return": -0.146317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023082, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.068043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.020519, "worst_return": -0.140913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108562, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104934, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.025847, "worst_return": -0.111577, 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"relative_strength": -8.150866, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.627448, "energy": 17.128922, "activity_lines": [ 37.170667, 36.894727, 37.188648, 37.337759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.76, "volume": 1230426, "typical_volume": 1436329.6, "trend": 37.519599, "fair_value": 32.325363, "relative_strength": -9.858957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.723197, "energy": 19.64412, "activity_lines": [ 37.128667, 36.866545, 37.143327, 37.288359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.12, "volume": 1143870, "typical_volume": 1418325.1, "trend": 37.536016, "fair_value": 32.411999, "relative_strength": -11.691097, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.974699, "energy": 16.732295, "activity_lines": [ 37.146667, 36.925091, 37.134856, 37.262578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }