{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ee8419f-0f28-4bd1-a2c8-3fd909709fbd", "symbol": "00783", "name": "Fubon China CSI 500 Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.733, "architecture_energy": 30.207, "architecture_maturity": 49.768, "architecture_confidence": 68.853, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.52, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 17.98, "deceleration": 69.57, "rotation_down": 62.37, "downward_expansion": 40.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.386667, 29.067637, 29.318, 29.17985 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.07, "trend_reference": 28.981334, "distance_from_trend": 0.003059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.36718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.60457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015369, "excess_performance": -0.363943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003059, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015369, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275060, "relative_activity": 0.44349, "balance": 0.956774, "dry_up": 1.247189, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047921, "annualized_volatility": 0.211208, "from_high_reference": -0.078021, "from_low_reference": 0.478637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.981334, "fair_value_reference": 21.36718, "structural_low": 26.299999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020926, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.055457, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135894, "worst_return": -0.045861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014487, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156089, "worst_return": -0.12472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028023, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.188605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267658, "worst_return": -0.206581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022998, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.709789, "energy": 13.630691, "activity_lines": [ 29.693334, 29.850546, 29.576953, 29.283183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.83, "volume": 819957, "typical_volume": 655265.4, "trend": 28.796667, "fair_value": 21.260321, "relative_strength": -22.730846, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.372858, "energy": 14.50201, "activity_lines": [ 28.922667, 29.473273, 29.444524, 29.227549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.860001, "volume": 889094, "typical_volume": 666302.5, "trend": 28.872667, "fair_value": 21.311539, "relative_strength": -21.317617, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.382808, "energy": 33.45297, "activity_lines": [ 28.352667, 29.142364, 29.320286, 29.167119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.07, "volume": 275060, "typical_volume": 620217.05, "trend": 28.981334, "fair_value": 21.36718, "relative_strength": -19.60457, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.732715, "energy": 30.207159, "activity_lines": [ 28.386667, 29.067637, 29.318, 29.17985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }