{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ee974ba-d317-45e0-a9bf-83f1bc6acbae", "symbol": "ICE", "name": "Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.942, "architecture_energy": 40.984, "architecture_maturity": 83.195, "architecture_confidence": 84.086, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.79, "rotation_up": 44.12, "upward_expansion": 25.96, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 21.37, "downward_expansion": 59.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2530.691992, 2435.29951, 2491.370335, 2578.342127 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2554.199951, "trend_reference": 2695.549248, "distance_from_trend": -0.052438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2766.527993, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.91942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171237, "excess_performance": -0.116571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089425, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113, "relative_activity": 0.062417, "balance": 0.305514, "dry_up": 0.67126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035393, "annualized_volatility": 0.377075, "from_high_reference": -0.271856, "from_low_reference": 0.165769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2695.549248, "fair_value_reference": 2766.527993, "structural_low": 2191.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000177, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.012535, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.080968, "worst_return": -0.192854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048848, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.084426, "worst_return": -0.253492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060043, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.125336, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118645, "worst_return": -0.25263, "sufficient": 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"energy": 68.988417, "activity_lines": [ 2270.537142, 2361.701482, 2535.512837, 2631.943959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2395.399902, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1657.25, "trend": 2731.764482, "fair_value": 2754.064043, "relative_strength": -19.305393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.180149, "energy": 68.206666, "activity_lines": [ 2305.064665, 2351.141136, 2510.295332, 2609.197621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2425.330078, "volume": 4736, "typical_volume": 1804.4, "trend": 2716.558501, "fair_value": 2757.358565, "relative_strength": -17.184806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.204653, "energy": 66.178222, "activity_lines": [ 2350.734684, 2351.804775, 2489.217832, 2589.42766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2699.0, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 1804.75, "trend": 2708.467208, "fair_value": 2762.407382, "relative_strength": -7.834056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.655235, "energy": 32.772697, "activity_lines": [ 2481.780013, 2407.464529, 2496.628657, 2588.294853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2554.199951, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 1810.4, "trend": 2695.549248, "fair_value": 2766.527993, "relative_strength": -11.91942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.94173, "energy": 40.98414, "activity_lines": [ 2530.691992, 2435.29951, 2491.370335, 2578.342127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }