{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eefc959-30da-4121-8b09-97dc02a596df", "symbol": "601607", "name": "Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.708, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.491, "architecture_energy": 23.656, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.466, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.44, "rotation_up": 47.67, "upward_expansion": 29.41, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 14.91, "downward_expansion": 47.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.60658, 16.267433, 16.324286, 16.498153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.700001, "trend_reference": 16.758704, "distance_from_trend": -0.003503, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.865819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.057718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034682, "excess_performance": 0.008522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030577, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.969652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64322908, "relative_activity": 1.415055, "balance": 0.969652, "dry_up": 1.721832, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038063, "annualized_volatility": 0.157084, "from_high_reference": -0.137797, "from_low_reference": 0.118047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.758704, "fair_value_reference": 17.865819, "structural_low": 14.936767, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008957, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.011699, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.134146, "worst_return": -0.091265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027544, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025323, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.081261, "worst_return": -0.074703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051009, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.026449, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.000487, "worst_return": -0.099853, "sufficient": 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-11.108446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.373095, "energy": 77.270706, "activity_lines": [ 15.616512, 15.855878, 16.287926, 16.553467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 109292878, "typical_volume": 42935273.05, "trend": 16.873666, "fair_value": 17.923547, "relative_strength": -0.403284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.315381, "energy": 42.498361, "activity_lines": [ 15.943104, 15.946222, 16.289969, 16.53362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.379999, "volume": 79932187, "typical_volume": 44055217.15, "trend": 16.822704, "fair_value": 17.900705, "relative_strength": -2.631778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.191689, "energy": 21.884019, "activity_lines": [ 16.152654, 16.00311, 16.272916, 16.501771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.860001, "volume": 59523119, "typical_volume": 44784990.0, "trend": 16.793371, "fair_value": 17.883552, "relative_strength": 0.118655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.503188, "energy": 19.650211, "activity_lines": [ 16.469086, 16.153635, 16.305196, 16.504177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 64322908, "typical_volume": 45456114.45, "trend": 16.758704, "fair_value": 17.865819, "relative_strength": -3.057718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.491218, "energy": 23.656252, "activity_lines": [ 16.60658, 16.267433, 16.324286, 16.498153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }