{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1eefefe8-ace8-4883-8a14-726066a57782", "symbol": "JGEH", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Growth Active UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.721, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.297, "architecture_energy": 33.139, "architecture_maturity": 61.057, "architecture_confidence": 54.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.64, "rotation_up": 39.31, "upward_expansion": 69.68, "deceleration": 82.66, "rotation_down": 29.59, "downward_expansion": 19.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.388001, 33.578273, 33.006239, 32.578581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.450001, "trend_reference": 32.2325, "distance_from_trend": 0.037772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.956786, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116608, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.292156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068349, "excess_performance": -0.102543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056435, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.050941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31, "relative_activity": 0.214014, "balance": 0.050941, "dry_up": 1.612012, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023801, "annualized_volatility": 0.197618, "from_high_reference": -0.055885, "from_low_reference": 0.147513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.2325, "fair_value_reference": 29.956786, "structural_low": 29.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002402, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002624, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.006802, "worst_return": -0.01047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006132, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006132, "worst_return": -0.006132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.057882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057882, "worst_return": -0.057882, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 33.130001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.2, "trend": 32.153666, "fair_value": 29.708178, "relative_strength": -11.79943, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.259038, "energy": 49.278006, "activity_lines": [ 32.704001, 32.145728, 31.715619, 31.838871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 33.130001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.2, "trend": 32.147833, "fair_value": 29.736933, "relative_strength": -13.754591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.954349, "energy": 60.82835, "activity_lines": [ 32.986001, 32.387091, 31.862215, 31.90186 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.130001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.9, "trend": 32.142, "fair_value": 29.765208, "relative_strength": -10.808203, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.706623, "energy": 72.99609, "activity_lines": [ 33.151001, 32.591637, 32.007143, 31.965226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.7, "trend": 32.1575, "fair_value": 29.80314, "relative_strength": -9.919564, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.674351, "energy": 84.795203, "activity_lines": [ 33.607334, 32.987001, 32.260072, 32.108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.4, "trend": 32.195166, "fair_value": 29.840451, "relative_strength": -9.280984, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.486072, "energy": 94.215468, "activity_lines": [ 33.865, 33.328182, 32.498548, 32.249774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.15, "trend": 32.232833, "fair_value": 29.877154, "relative_strength": -7.74138, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.930249, "energy": 93.457709, "activity_lines": [ 34.11, 33.615182, 32.723881, 32.389119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.15, "trend": 32.2705, "fair_value": 29.913266, "relative_strength": -7.359339, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.332903, "energy": 90.494735, "activity_lines": [ 34.273333, 33.848, 32.935596, 32.526032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.860001, "volume": 903, "typical_volume": 143.3, "trend": 32.225, "fair_value": 29.92884, "relative_strength": -14.304371, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.620045, "energy": 40.805545, "activity_lines": [ 33.523334, 33.573, 32.896072, 32.499549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.450001, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 144.85, "trend": 32.2325, "fair_value": 29.956786, "relative_strength": -12.292156, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.297478, "energy": 33.139304, "activity_lines": [ 33.388001, 33.578273, 33.006239, 32.578581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }