{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ef41dc6-7e16-4431-8694-a46ad627cca7", "symbol": "3105", "name": "WIN Semiconductors Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.212, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.533, "architecture_energy": 30.968, "architecture_maturity": 8.683, "architecture_confidence": 42.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.91, "rotation_up": 17.67, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 58.42, "rotation_down": 58.43, "downward_expansion": 45.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 350.2, 369.5, 418.336987, 417.238053 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 378.0, "trend_reference": 391.114987, "distance_from_trend": -0.033532, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 176.639965, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.139946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.788254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.729331, "excess_performance": 0.287959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.258505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.139946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.810792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.729331, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.736811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125557068, "relative_activity": 0.932226, "balance": 0.736811, "dry_up": 0.829165, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226487, "annualized_volatility": 0.909368, "from_high_reference": -0.4041, "from_low_reference": 3.460496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 391.114987, "fair_value_reference": 176.639965, "structural_low": 224.556478, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031815, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.213675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.119167, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.144844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073684, "worst_return": -0.367089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098246, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.258676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094098, "worst_return": -0.420667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.785619, "energy": 26.047514, "activity_lines": [ 393.033333, 435.316925, 456.491707, 425.713568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 341.5, "volume": 88364870, "typical_volume": 135096159.75, "trend": 375.91673, "fair_value": 173.132051, "relative_strength": 5.459138, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.37967, "energy": 40.98442, "activity_lines": [ 366.766667, 413.805439, 446.7647, 423.854914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 294.5, "volume": 128817595, "typical_volume": 140078451.95, "trend": 379.443159, "fair_value": 173.896532, "relative_strength": -8.646602, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.002328, "energy": 56.720584, "activity_lines": [ 337.266667, 385.84089, 432.350794, 418.602222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 366.0, "volume": 103965189, "typical_volume": 137260387.2, "trend": 385.701458, "fair_value": 175.191922, "relative_strength": 9.38906, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.045659, "energy": 50.29083, "activity_lines": [ 340.233333, 375.135945, 424.82827, 417.734921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 378.0, "volume": 125557068, "typical_volume": 134685170.2, "trend": 391.114987, "fair_value": 176.639965, "relative_strength": 7.788254, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.533412, "energy": 30.967577, "activity_lines": [ 350.2, 369.5, 418.336987, 417.238053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }