{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f00dd96-4f18-4f7b-81a4-97785fdbdc93", "symbol": "SWIM", "name": "Latham Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.487, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.658, "architecture_energy": 26.229, "architecture_maturity": 26.791, "architecture_confidence": 57.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.7, "rotation_up": 50.13, "upward_expansion": 45.63, "deceleration": 42.97, "rotation_down": 28.82, "downward_expansion": 13.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.218, 6.099091, 5.867048, 5.866989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.48, "trend_reference": 5.978, "distance_from_trend": 0.251255, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.323814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405008, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.309353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.05412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.251255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.338487, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.81847, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8519412, "relative_activity": 2.311359, "balance": 1.81847, "dry_up": 1.197063, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09731, "annualized_volatility": 0.648638, "from_high_reference": -0.165756, "from_low_reference": 0.612069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.978, "fair_value_reference": 5.323814, "structural_low": 4.64, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073318, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.062938, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178295, "worst_return": -0.005362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100592, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.044679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148837, "worst_return": -0.005362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034109, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.07549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.671598, "worst_return": -0.335121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -0.286657, "energy": 17.268477, "activity_lines": [ 6.018667, 5.727818, 5.699095, 5.842602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.15, "volume": 2972302, "typical_volume": 4408538.95, "trend": 6.02, "fair_value": 5.272788, "relative_strength": -20.402602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.666221, "energy": 26.466437, "activity_lines": [ 6.118667, 5.828727, 5.732381, 5.849032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.89, "volume": 3620536, "typical_volume": 3964543.8, "trend": 6.006667, "fair_value": 5.283301, "relative_strength": -20.016442, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.158965, "energy": 24.218194, "activity_lines": [ 6.074, 5.878545, 5.744476, 5.840645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.5, "volume": 3131841, "typical_volume": 3645012.25, "trend": 5.978667, "fair_value": 5.292981, "relative_strength": -23.523977, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.290264, "energy": 12.105699, "activity_lines": [ 5.88, 5.850364, 5.723333, 5.807957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 2377178, "typical_volume": 3545923.8, "trend": 5.946333, "fair_value": 5.302724, "relative_strength": -25.278268, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.871481, "energy": 20.605363, "activity_lines": [ 5.660667, 5.783273, 5.692667, 5.768043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.48, "volume": 8519412, "typical_volume": 3685889.15, "trend": 5.978, "fair_value": 5.323814, "relative_strength": -0.309353, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.658438, "energy": 26.228533, "activity_lines": [ 6.218, 6.099091, 5.867048, 5.866989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }