{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f03cd29-eed6-47d5-96fb-c249e023c368", "symbol": "PBH", "name": "PointsBet Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.847, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.425, "architecture_energy": 50.456, "architecture_maturity": 6.094, "architecture_confidence": 73.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.43, "rotation_up": 15.47, "upward_expansion": 25.72, "deceleration": 49.62, "rotation_down": 63.72, "downward_expansion": 53.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.906333, 0.926182, 0.954167, 0.94828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.89, "trend_reference": 0.938, "distance_from_trend": -0.051173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.792476, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.580262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011111, "excess_performance": -0.074817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145635, "relative_activity": 0.89832, "balance": 0.912086, "dry_up": 0.562199, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060501, "annualized_volatility": 0.356586, "from_high_reference": -0.323194, "from_low_reference": 0.178808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.938, "fair_value_reference": 0.792476, "structural_low": 0.755, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048896, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027951, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.025253, "worst_return": -0.072539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.075758, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075758, "worst_return": -0.075758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.121212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.121212, "worst_return": -0.121212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.964179, "energy": 14.967445, "activity_lines": [ 0.941, 0.959818, 0.968952, 0.954968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.94, "volume": 66628, "typical_volume": 162360.3, "trend": 0.940167, "fair_value": 0.785502, "relative_strength": -5.078582, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.943854, "energy": 17.63374, "activity_lines": [ 0.937667, 0.953, 0.967429, 0.955011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.885, "volume": 114235, "typical_volume": 163384.9, "trend": 0.939167, "fair_value": 0.788949, "relative_strength": -12.043855, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.339123, "energy": 42.773069, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.938091, 0.960524, 0.951452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.89, "volume": 145635, "typical_volume": 162119.25, "trend": 0.938, "fair_value": 0.792476, "relative_strength": -13.580262, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.425139, "energy": 50.456326, "activity_lines": [ 0.906333, 0.926182, 0.954167, 0.94828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }