{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f115a68-75ff-4acb-bbd2-00a2fe7801d6", "symbol": "FRAM-B", "name": "Fram Skandinavien AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.399, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.185, "architecture_energy": 18.576, "architecture_maturity": 58.726, "architecture_confidence": 69.315, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.87, "rotation_up": 25.44, "upward_expansion": 17.56, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 29.94, "downward_expansion": 56.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.487818, 4.498857, 4.580516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 4.693667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.684103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.671151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.561982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04661, "excess_performance": -0.108105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.671151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -8.1e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.528112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10887, "relative_activity": 1.230434, "balance": 1.528112, "dry_up": 0.739876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043932, "annualized_volatility": 0.30629, "from_high_reference": -0.28, "from_low_reference": 0.145038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.693667, "fair_value_reference": 13.684103, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.014815, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.031079, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.154839, "worst_return": -0.383459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003367, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.086453, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.208861, "worst_return": -0.50625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015924, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035407, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.248276, "worst_return": -0.596354, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.44, "volume": 10433, "typical_volume": 18395.1, "trend": 4.756333, "fair_value": 14.170833, "relative_strength": -15.16766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.531946, "energy": 26.605213, "activity_lines": [ 4.460667, 4.443273, 4.530048, 4.621935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.57, "volume": 1785, "typical_volume": 13842.55, "trend": 4.738667, "fair_value": 14.00782, "relative_strength": -13.954474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.933539, "energy": 26.211451, "activity_lines": [ 4.482, 4.466364, 4.522, 4.609914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 3081, "typical_volume": 12069.25, "trend": 4.717, "fair_value": 13.843718, "relative_strength": -16.142983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.607593, "energy": 27.067218, "activity_lines": [ 4.482667, 4.477818, 4.509333, 4.594516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 10887, "typical_volume": 8848.1, "trend": 4.693667, "fair_value": 13.684103, "relative_strength": -17.561982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.185365, "energy": 18.576308, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.487818, 4.498857, 4.580516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }