{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f175a67-6333-4708-b9d8-2a4d36ff362b", "symbol": "FLN", "name": "First Trust Latin America AlphaDEX Fund", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.052, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.733, "architecture_energy": 12.301, "architecture_maturity": 12.362, "architecture_confidence": 57.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.15, "rotation_up": 53.95, "upward_expansion": 34.93, "deceleration": 27.57, "rotation_down": 17.07, "downward_expansion": 21.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.779453, 25.48121, 25.533601, 25.592492 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.7085, "trend_reference": 25.635058, "distance_from_trend": 0.002865, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.41148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.172638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025782, "excess_performance": -0.213236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002865, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.539324, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37616, "relative_activity": 0.479969, "balance": 1.539324, "dry_up": 0.802033, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039698, "annualized_volatility": 0.243086, "from_high_reference": -0.091251, "from_low_reference": 0.344182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.635058, "fair_value_reference": 19.41148, "structural_low": 23.787124, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025627, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.019565, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": -0.094472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012546, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037261, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.095378, "worst_return": -0.098837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018403, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051484, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.066063, 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"return": -0.055241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004832, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.212119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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"trend": 25.348904, "fair_value": 19.249697, "relative_strength": -1.210458, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.018531, "energy": 5.212335, "activity_lines": [ 25.280482, 25.122889, 25.467139, 25.525915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.5683, "volume": 34395, "typical_volume": 90240.4, "trend": 25.446996, "fair_value": 19.299106, "relative_strength": -0.021824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.216936, "energy": 8.12951, "activity_lines": [ 25.437847, 25.208342, 25.473803, 25.54007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.1147, "volume": 148519, "typical_volume": 87353.15, "trend": 25.563662, "fair_value": 19.356137, "relative_strength": 1.320248, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.763778, "energy": 20.877982, "activity_lines": [ 25.719933, 25.387677, 25.528116, 25.583148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.7085, "volume": 37616, "typical_volume": 78371.75, "trend": 25.635058, "fair_value": 19.41148, "relative_strength": -5.172638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.733467, "energy": 12.300789, "activity_lines": [ 25.779453, 25.48121, 25.533601, 25.592492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }