{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f1860a2-7a99-4943-b3a5-7066387d91d2", "symbol": "300664", "name": "Penyao Environmental Protection Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.248, "architecture_energy": 45.315, "architecture_maturity": 72.265, "architecture_confidence": 65.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.28, "rotation_up": 26.66, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 43.94, "downward_expansion": 69.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.484, 4.474364, 4.761649, 5.020853 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.56, "trend_reference": 5.302466, "distance_from_trend": -0.140023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.066492, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.229711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196166, "excess_performance": -0.203566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196166, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40653152, "relative_activity": 0.618084, "balance": 0.421539, "dry_up": 0.742328, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074882, "annualized_volatility": 0.414101, "from_high_reference": -0.297871, "from_low_reference": 0.088305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.302466, "fair_value_reference": 5.066492, "structural_low": 4.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020294, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.176617, "worst_return": -0.148627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012365, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.024785, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.40678, "worst_return": -0.126606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07563, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.316849, "worst_return": -0.179262, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.735501, "energy": 83.309931, "activity_lines": [ 4.395333, 4.567268, 4.968343, 5.1887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.36, "volume": 67880624, "typical_volume": 79456351.85, "trend": 5.354877, "fair_value": 5.077013, "relative_strength": -20.052725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.457926, "energy": 78.575364, "activity_lines": [ 4.381333, 4.495766, 4.879417, 5.122287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.55, "volume": 41552141, "typical_volume": 71758627.85, "trend": 5.32735, "fair_value": 5.071811, "relative_strength": -14.716427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.131827, "energy": 56.388146, "activity_lines": [ 4.440667, 4.477818, 4.815922, 5.07036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.56, "volume": 40653152, "typical_volume": 65772837.15, "trend": 5.302466, "fair_value": 5.066492, "relative_strength": -18.229711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.248112, "energy": 45.315147, "activity_lines": [ 4.484, 4.474364, 4.761649, 5.020853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }