{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f1aebb6-a6d3-4d17-953d-f1d4200d0a6b", "symbol": "FTEK", "name": "Invesco KBW NASDAQ Fintech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.817, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.406, "architecture_energy": 89.621, "architecture_maturity": 14.04, "architecture_confidence": 64.008, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.38, "rotation_up": 83.51, "upward_expansion": 96.11, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.23, "downward_expansion": 20.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.207999, 54.722636, 53.307762, 52.675064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.689999, "trend_reference": 52.421334, "distance_from_trend": 0.100506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.429615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121727, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.732127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126318, "excess_performance": 0.043434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100506, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074915, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.923315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16405, "relative_activity": 3.57314, "balance": 3.923315, "dry_up": 4.413988, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031828, "annualized_volatility": 0.261582, "from_high_reference": -0.09986, "from_low_reference": 0.205769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.421334, "fair_value_reference": 51.429615, "structural_low": 47.845001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06027, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049962, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079447, "worst_return": -0.0072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.114777, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14147, "worst_return": 0.088083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.071963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122683, "worst_return": 0.021244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.452548, "energy": 67.084922, "activity_lines": [ 54.076666, 52.638818, 52.061548, 51.99042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.099998, "volume": 16918, "typical_volume": 2323.25, "trend": 52.537334, "fair_value": 51.190994, "relative_strength": -12.273033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.214841, "energy": 64.599517, "activity_lines": [ 54.434666, 53.036636, 52.29981, 52.080721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.529999, "volume": 28957, "typical_volume": 3771.05, "trend": 52.470334, "fair_value": 51.304455, "relative_strength": -7.867241, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.943513, "energy": 76.253566, "activity_lines": [ 55.339999, 53.822272, 52.762738, 52.338312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.689999, "volume": 16405, "typical_volume": 4591.2, "trend": 52.421334, "fair_value": 51.429615, "relative_strength": -6.732127, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.406281, "energy": 89.620706, "activity_lines": [ 56.207999, 54.722636, 53.307762, 52.675064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }