{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f1d995e-0ebe-44bf-b263-571d62cd4392", "symbol": "00738U", "name": "Yuanta DJCI Silver ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.009, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.702, "architecture_energy": 57.724, "architecture_maturity": 39.665, "architecture_confidence": 92.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 9.97, "deceleration": 56.16, "rotation_down": 57.92, "downward_expansion": 83.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.531999, 48.214727, 52.569809, 55.813247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.049999, "trend_reference": 60.630333, "distance_from_trend": -0.174506, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.971154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.43118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.321457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.453005, "excess_performance": -0.832317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.43118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.55353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.453005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.036219, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15515436, "relative_activity": 0.601757, "balance": 1.036219, "dry_up": 0.57007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090556, "annualized_volatility": 0.776921, "from_high_reference": -0.49162, "from_low_reference": 0.623419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.630333, "fair_value_reference": 34.971154, "structural_low": 44.119999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.015208, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.011167, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.136825, "worst_return": -0.085366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038982, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014308, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.272982, "worst_return": -0.194219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209901, "worst_return": -0.121264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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74.249247, "activity_lines": [ 46.494666, 48.373999, 53.140571, 56.518107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.049999, "volume": 15515436, "typical_volume": 25783571.1, "trend": 60.630333, "fair_value": 34.971154, "relative_strength": -29.321457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.701922, "energy": 57.724468, "activity_lines": [ 47.531999, 48.214727, 52.569809, 55.813247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }