{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f3b4058-733b-4faa-8121-8489f350ae3f", "symbol": "MRPL", "name": "Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.785, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.894, "architecture_energy": 20.721, "architecture_maturity": 16.3, "architecture_confidence": 60.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.94, "rotation_up": 44.81, "upward_expansion": 39.96, "deceleration": 41.11, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 39.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 169.035333, 164.728909, 162.583858, 166.373843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 167.009995, "trend_reference": 169.630743, "distance_from_trend": -0.01545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 156.459786, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.353765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079442, "excess_performance": -0.035733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063538, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.322313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22090987, "relative_activity": 0.468572, "balance": 2.322313, "dry_up": 2.44315, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071276, "annualized_volatility": 0.40287, "from_high_reference": -0.212217, "from_low_reference": 0.415803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 169.630743, "fair_value_reference": 156.459786, "structural_low": 143.119995, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.008747, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.544643, "worst_return": -0.149708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.202584, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.135414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.640674, "worst_return": -0.319212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.120281, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.094533, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.855531, "energy": 14.386092, "activity_lines": [ 162.335336, 158.532546, 162.062584, 166.164081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.75, "volume": 89729492, "typical_volume": 61796167.25, "trend": 167.882667, "fair_value": 155.347203, "relative_strength": 13.039295, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.921716, "energy": 18.634147, "activity_lines": [ 165.899335, 161.115092, 162.201001, 166.344201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 169.940002, "volume": 56883642, "typical_volume": 61657887.7, "trend": 168.607875, "fair_value": 155.925093, "relative_strength": 9.624255, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.861663, "energy": 20.13774, "activity_lines": [ 168.489336, 163.37891, 162.51243, 166.476932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.009995, "volume": 22090987, "typical_volume": 47145345.7, "trend": 169.630743, "fair_value": 156.459786, "relative_strength": 6.353765, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.894334, "energy": 20.720903, "activity_lines": [ 169.035333, 164.728909, 162.583858, 166.373843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }