{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f4279df-13ce-41a5-821b-b60599573506", "symbol": "EX46", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.049, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.91, "architecture_energy": 80.062, "architecture_maturity": 40.205, "architecture_confidence": 67.793, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 76.38, "upward_expansion": 91.77, "deceleration": 47.74, "rotation_down": 15.09, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.610333, 39.214272, 38.604523, 38.024226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.119999, "trend_reference": 37.232167, "distance_from_trend": 0.077563, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.913173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297829, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.139009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11429, "excess_performance": -0.059957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077563, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051439, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.11211, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4922, "relative_activity": 3.458161, "balance": 4.11211, "dry_up": 1.806014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016729, "annualized_volatility": 0.085173, "from_high_reference": -0.000125, "from_low_reference": 0.276487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.232167, "fair_value_reference": 30.913173, "structural_low": 34.869999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.005729, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.002684, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.065993, "worst_return": -0.066224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032286, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027925, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.069638, "worst_return": -0.085343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038268, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041524, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148137, "worst_return": -0.096973, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 39.224998, "volume": 3848, "typical_volume": 1811.35, "trend": 36.86, "fair_value": 30.738654, "relative_strength": -6.814476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.649521, "energy": 63.422158, "activity_lines": [ 38.934999, 38.72309, 38.166214, 37.634602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.830002, "volume": 175, "typical_volume": 1681.55, "trend": 37.050833, "fair_value": 30.824744, "relative_strength": -5.20853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.796585, "energy": 68.350401, "activity_lines": [ 39.248667, 38.956909, 38.380809, 37.826215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.119999, "volume": 4922, "typical_volume": 1423.3, "trend": 37.232167, "fair_value": 30.913173, "relative_strength": -7.139009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.909995, "energy": 80.062367, "activity_lines": [ 39.610333, 39.214272, 38.604523, 38.024226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }