{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f43c91b-a880-440b-a360-b4bed609b0f2", "symbol": "688081", "name": "Wuhan Xingtu Xinke Electronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.414, "architecture_energy": 84.922, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.578, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 8.15, "upward_expansion": 20.86, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 79.98, "downward_expansion": 96.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.738666, 34.263455, 41.127905, 42.176452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.59, "trend_reference": 42.302667, "distance_from_trend": -0.276878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.996154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.038551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108943, "excess_performance": -0.065739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.389264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.805781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9999129, "relative_activity": 1.070621, "balance": 0.367334, "dry_up": 1.213721, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201775, "annualized_volatility": 0.643501, "from_high_reference": -0.521957, "from_low_reference": 0.389823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.302667, "fair_value_reference": 21.996154, "structural_low": 24.450001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025011, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018086, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023138, "worst_return": -0.063332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023762, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004893, "worst_return": -0.064334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.295842, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.159951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197517, "worst_return": -0.355352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.404846, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.266714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.320396, "worst_return": -0.489297, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.218442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.282655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.214876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.159184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021779, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.251707, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089776, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 5044589, "typical_volume": 9974236.85, "trend": 16.25719, "fair_value": 18.328258, "relative_strength": 3.962913, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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46.028172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.869999, "volume": 1708487, "typical_volume": 9483877.2, "trend": 42.393667, "fair_value": 21.569744, "relative_strength": 9.164503, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.211504, "energy": 24.312224, "activity_lines": [ 44.174, 47.912182, 48.031572, 45.888344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.360001, "volume": 8303660, "typical_volume": 9145690.9, "trend": 42.608333, "fair_value": 21.697885, "relative_strength": 5.363761, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.799615, "energy": 36.799486, "activity_lines": [ 41.596667, 45.741273, 47.261, 45.628108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.0, "volume": 11670961, "typical_volume": 9254223.9, "trend": 42.625, "fair_value": 21.773718, "relative_strength": -10.119925, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.216447, "energy": 64.036659, "activity_lines": [ 37.437334, 42.491091, 45.813619, 44.879183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.07, "volume": 13726853, "typical_volume": 9097103.35, "trend": 42.581667, "fair_value": 21.840962, "relative_strength": -19.950511, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.179716, "energy": 75.548004, "activity_lines": [ 33.417333, 39.152364, 44.145381, 43.940151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.139999, "volume": 9945541, "typical_volume": 9174923.0, "trend": 42.485667, "fair_value": 21.903397, "relative_strength": -23.162059, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.471464, "energy": 80.649151, "activity_lines": [ 30.504666, 36.124909, 42.445524, 42.943914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.59, "volume": 9999129, "typical_volume": 9339557.4, "trend": 42.302667, "fair_value": 21.996154, "relative_strength": -16.038551, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.413881, "energy": 84.922168, "activity_lines": [ 29.738666, 34.263455, 41.127905, 42.176452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }