{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1f46adcd-c10f-45db-b2db-5d101b0e2930",
    "symbol": "VMO",
    "name": "Vanguard Global Momentum Factor ETF CAD",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 67.172,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 20.219,
    "architecture_energy": 24.941,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.788,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.495,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.64,
        "rotation_up": 16.95,
        "upward_expansion": 51.95,
        "deceleration": 94.0,
        "rotation_down": 40.93,
        "downward_expansion": 20.28
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        93.196001,
        95.206,
        95.129428,
        92.923763
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 94.370003,
    "trend_reference": 90.103666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.047349,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 67.28519,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402538,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.961552,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.116144,
    "excess_performance": -0.004277,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047349,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066099,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.402538,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09725,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009616,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.087799,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.116144,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.776868,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28900,
      "relative_activity": 0.631556,
      "balance": 0.776868,
      "dry_up": 1.122159,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044766,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.211191,
      "from_high_reference": -0.074169,
      "from_low_reference": 0.317091
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 90.103666,
      "fair_value_reference": 67.28519,
      "structural_low": 78.440002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.009772,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005074,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.066934,
        "worst_return": -0.080775,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.00089,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011877,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.082866,
        "worst_return": -0.097664,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.094584,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018721,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.210446,
        "worst_return": -0.048641,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.115163,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010572,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.118545,
        "worst_return": -0.113744,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017079,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.1287,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.062549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.075522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.023933,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001131,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.012975,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.130804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 54670.0,
        "trend": 83.980166,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 85.033321,
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        "relative_strength": 5.502195,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 53540.0,
        "trend": 85.729863,
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        "relative_strength": 8.866533,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 47560.0,
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        "fair_value": 65.761202,
        "relative_strength": 8.109275,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 97.629997,
        "volume": 76600,
        "typical_volume": 49150.0,
        "trend": 88.528582,
        "fair_value": 66.090769,
        "relative_strength": 5.643979,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.952601,
        "energy": 74.141926,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 92.779999,
        "volume": 70200,
        "typical_volume": 48945.0,
        "trend": 88.940802,
        "fair_value": 66.389949,
        "relative_strength": 0.476777,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.897478,
        "energy": 39.548947,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.980665,
          97.40909,
          94.933618,
          92.256588
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 93.139999,
        "volume": 47200,
        "typical_volume": 46980.0,
        "trend": 89.358999,
        "fair_value": 66.688178,
        "relative_strength": 0.539938,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.000612,
        "energy": 24.679521,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.245998,
          96.703999,
          95.087189,
          92.527504
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 90.870003,
        "volume": 59100,
        "typical_volume": 46780.0,
        "trend": 89.738999,
        "fair_value": 66.974348,
        "relative_strength": -1.503333,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.249139,
        "energy": 23.078385,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.340667,
          95.596727,
          94.965523,
          92.624988
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 94.370003,
        "volume": 28900,
        "typical_volume": 45760.0,
        "trend": 90.103666,
        "fair_value": 67.28519,
        "relative_strength": -0.961552,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.218933,
        "energy": 24.941031,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.196001,
          95.206,
          95.129428,
          92.923763
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}