{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1f485806-c485-414f-a2c4-4c3e6c9c8d66", "symbol": "REZ", "name": "Resources & Energy Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.383, "architecture_energy": 53.828, "architecture_maturity": 23.294, "architecture_confidence": 81.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.61, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 10.03, "deceleration": 41.44, "rotation_down": 67.13, "downward_expansion": 85.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011, 0.011655, 0.01251, 0.012908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.0136, "distance_from_trend": -0.191176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.37961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.543069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266667, "excess_performance": -0.330372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.37961, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.186772, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2754311, "relative_activity": 0.389906, "balance": 3.186772, "dry_up": 0.481144, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195804, "annualized_volatility": 0.675397, "from_high_reference": -0.645161, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0136, "fair_value_reference": 0.017731, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.051339, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.046921, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.647059, "worst_return": -0.372093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.183008, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.28125, "worst_return": -0.446809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.171429, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.251274, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.574468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.15438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.464286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.615385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.461183, "energy": 49.811582, "activity_lines": [ 0.012467, 0.0132, 0.013338, 0.013671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.011, "volume": 546011, "typical_volume": 9451422.9, "trend": 0.014, "fair_value": 0.017878, "relative_strength": -32.551198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.122005, "energy": 66.130512, "activity_lines": [ 0.0118, 0.012745, 0.013105, 0.013473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 2570931, "typical_volume": 7980408.3, "trend": 0.013967, "fair_value": 0.017821, "relative_strength": -25.578489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.671913, "energy": 61.977672, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012509, 0.012986, 0.013344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 7724015, "typical_volume": 7072349.3, "trend": 0.0138, "fair_value": 0.017776, "relative_strength": -38.92643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.840601, "energy": 66.829857, "activity_lines": [ 0.011133, 0.011964, 0.01269, 0.013088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 2754311, "typical_volume": 7064039.45, "trend": 0.0136, "fair_value": 0.017731, "relative_strength": -34.543069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.382562, "energy": 53.828445, "activity_lines": [ 0.011, 0.011655, 0.01251, 0.012908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }